Two days ago, ODM boss and the man of the moment, Raila Odinga, met the Mt Kenya Foundation, the exclusive gathering of moneyed elite who are said to call the shots behind the scenes in Kenya’s electoral transitions.
If you are familiar with the CS for Education releasing exam results, this must have looked familiar, for the MFK folks were meeting Raila to present the results of their wide consultation on who would be the best president for the Mt Kenya region.
The former Prime Minister, according to the 'examiners' at the foundation, had passed with flying colours. He was promptly announced as the guarantor of the mountain’s future prospects, as well as President Uhuru Kenyatta’s legacy.
But what should have stolen the show was something Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho said at the meeting.
In divulging what he claims to have come from ODM meetings in the heat of the 2007-08 post-election violence, Joho said certain factions of the party had been pushing for a “fight to the end”. Joho said they rejected any suggestion that the party should make peace with Mwai Kibaki or share power.
It has been in public domain for a long time that as the country burned, there were political circles that who would have preferred to 'let nature take its course.'
Joho and several people who were there said Raila overruled them and unequivocally took the firm stand that he would never be the president of a country overflowing with blood.
As is now known, all of the ODM chief’s closest allies were caught by surprise when the boss sneaked to Sagana State Lodge and signed a deal with Kibaki.
His brother Oburu Oginga, possibly his most trusted lieutenant, writes in in his autobiography, In The Shadow Of My Father, that he (Oburu) was in Arusha when he saw on TV that Raila and Kibaki had reached a deal.
When Raila walks into the Kasarani Stadium on Friday to launch his fifth attempt to be the fifth President of this Republic, it must occur to the thousands in attendance and millions watching on TV that this is the one quality that makes Raila best suited to carry the aspirations of this nation as its next CEO.
When the toughest decisions have had to be made, Raila has predictably turned his back on the crowds, and chosen the path of nationhood, even at great personal and political cost.
Any politician with lesser foresight, in that 2008 scenario, would have picked the path of personal glory, by opting for the presidency at whatever cost.
The greater concern for the nation should in fact be that Raila may be the last of that generation of caring fathers, who looked at the map of the country and saw much more than just vote bloc, tenders and power.
Former Vice President Moody Awori says in his autobiography Riding On A Tiger that by his nature, Raila helps people but doesn’t talk about it. So a lot of his kindness does not get publicly acknowledged.
It is in keeping with this trait that not many know that before his first run for president in 1997, the son of Jaramogi had briefly worked on a proposed joint ticket with Kenneth Matiba, which included tours of Raila’s bases in Nairobi. If Matiba hadn’t set his voters card on fire, “Matiba Tosha” would have preceded “Kibaki Tosha” by five years!
And this is a good point to start the conversation on why the Mt Kenya support is significant in this fifth run for the fifth slot.
In examining the support from the Mt Kenya billionaires, we must be alive to the fact that this wouldn’t be happening without the hidden hand of President Kenyatta.
Regional leaders have confessed in public that the demonisation campaigns against Raila in the four electoral cycles in which he was a candidate, were all laced with lies and propaganda, which they intend to undo in readiness for the 2022 polls.
In examining the support from the Mt Kenya billionaires, we must be alive to the fact that this wouldn’t be happening without the hidden hand of President Kenyatta.
Regional leaders have confessed in public that the demonisation campaigns against Raila in the four electoral cycles in which he was a candidate, were all laced with lies and propaganda — which they intend to undo in readiness for the 2022 polls.
But the mere fact that such a powerful vote and economic bloc has embraced the former PM is a modern-day miracle. Truth be told, many in Raila’s core bases have watched these events with a little shock at how things have changed.
The perennial divide between the Kikuyu and the Luo communities, the proverbial 'originals in', has remained the most exploited division in this country’s long history of shaky ethnic relations.
Even as late as now, Raila’s biggest opponent for the 2022 prize, DP William Ruto, runs a daily campaign in Central Kenya that appears anchored on the perceived hatred of Raila among Kikuyu masses.
Careers have been built and broken around this. By endorsing Raila openly and unequivocally, the Mt Kenya political and money establishment has broken sociocultural and political myths.
They have also most likely buried forever this ethnic dragon that has been ridden to power by merchants of division.
Presidential transitions, in my view, are functions of the three Ms: money, masses and the military.
On this continent, we can argue until the chickens come home, but history has competently shown us that you can have the masses behind you, but without assuaging the jitters around the owners of capital, and securing the confidence of the security apparatus, you have only done a third of the job.
Oburu has indeed reminded recently that the one ingredient his brother’s four runs missed was 'the system', a reference to the faceless people who pull strings behind the scenes to determine who gets the prize.
Before today, not many could have staked even the smallest bet on Mt Kenya’s owners of capital sitting in a room, on live TV, declaring that the man they felt safer with, going into this crucial election, was Raila.
And if DP Ruto fails to clinch the presidency next year, this moment would be one of the biggest reference points to him, and to keen students of history and politics.
The transformation the ODM leader has undergone, from the leftist firebrand of the 90s to the centrist pacifier and fatherly figure adoringly christened Baba by all and sundry in the 2000s, maybe largely underestimated. But it provides the perfect blueprint on how to thaw the hearts and minds of difficult demographics.
Simply put, in slowly but surely assuaging the fears of all three Ms, Mr Odinga has not only 'climbed' Mt Kenya, but also broken the biggest barrier of his political life, presenting himself with the best-ever chance to take the oath of the highest office in the land.
I have stated here before that the ideological differences between founding fathers Jomo Kenyatta and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga may have been twisted, repackaged and sold to generations to perpetuate ethnic divisions as a political philosophy.
Few of us ever imagined we would live long enough to see not only a sitting president from the Kikuyu community backing a successor from the Luo community but also the mere thought of a Kenyatta backing an Odinga was too far-fetched to contemplate.
In finding enough common purpose to rally around each other, the two sons of the country’s foremost political giants have performed the single bravest political act since Independence.
As if to confirm Raila’s selflessness, Uhuru has stated numerous times that when their Handshake was solemnised in March 2018, the ODM leader never asked for anything in return.
This is a testament to the foresight and forthrightness that now place Raila in the throes of history. We do know many politicians who in a similar position would have hustled the President out of his wits with a raft of demands, starting with half of the Cabinet, to all parastatals and as much land as the imagination could capture.
Surprisingly, those in this latter group are the exact ones up in arms over Mt Kenya’s endorsement of Raila, obviously unable to see the relationship between trust and political unions.
Because he never seeks to benefit from his actions, as we have already been told by no less than Joho and Awori, Raila often does not get the credit due to him.
Azimio La Umoja may appear like just another movement created as a vehicle for election campaigns, but in hindsight, that unity message has been central to Raila’s politics,
This has been true, especially in the periods immediately after divisive elections, when the country has looked to him for guidance in the midst of his own pain of loss.
There is no need to belabour the point that even though economic talk is key in political transitions, the strongest foundation on which to anchor the post-Uhuru dispensation will be national unity and stability.
This is a key front on which, by his actions, Raila has answered the question, “In whose hands are we safe?”
There will be song and dance at Kasarani on Friday. But there will also be the realisation of just how far Raila has travelled, from the vilified figure fleeing his country to escape possible harm in the 1980s to the revered figure feted by erstwhile enemies today.
There will be the realisation of the perennial hunter launching his fifth stab at becoming the fifth President of Kenya, looking straight at his best opportunity of the five, with barely concealed state machinery all around him to confirm he has finally captured any missing M among the three Ms.
Writers of history will run out of superlatives in recording this moment. And it’s difficult to say Raila doesn't deserve it!
(Edited by V. Graham)
This article's byline was updated from Tom Mboya to Collins Ajuok
