Body language readers, at least of the layman variety, agreed that the look on the faces of some of the Oka principals when ODM boss Raila Odinga walked into the Wiper NDC at the Kasarani Gymnasium could only mean jealousy was eating them meticulously, like a mutant virus.
You would never know how competent jealousy can be until it visits a coalition built on quicksand, with the resultant tower of Babel becoming a spectacle of comical proportions.
In my assessment, Oka was set up to fail from the word go, and there are several reasons. The first is that beyond just dumping Nasa and seeking to show they could run their politics without needing their former ally Raila Odinga, the three former Nasa co-principals — Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula never bothered to find a common purpose on which to anchor their alliance moving forward.
There have been suggestions that they in fact didn’t envisage a situation where President Uhuru Kenyatta would back Raila, or whether the latter would “climb the mountain”.
In speeches and in actions, the “Raila is unacceptable in Central Kenya” narrative became their core theme. Indeed, if you follow Oka campaigns, Raila is mentioned more times than whatever blueprints they have for Kenya.
Lately, one of the principals seems to whine more about being forced to back a particular candidate, rather than selling his own agenda. Mercifully, the State House meetings where they were supposedly being arm-twisted to back a certain aspirant ended, saving our ears more of this whine fest.
The second problem is that the Oka chiefs might have overestimated their own influence, or underestimated the critical nature of the 2022 polls to key stakeholders. Simply put, for a retiring president to come out in full force to try and stop his deputy ascending to the top seat, there must be dynamics at play much graver than the naked eye can see.
The emerging picture is that the President and his state machinery were always going to back a candidate who had the political might to go toe to toe with DP William Ruto and win. With utmost respect to the Oka principals, this is not a village bullfight, where we cheer one bull to victory while the owner of the losing bull promises to feed “Simba” properly for the next contest!
There are huge national security and stability considerations in the choice of president. So, you really have to outgrow your village’s support and capture the imagination of the nation, before powerful forces in the countryside with you in a major contest.
The third issue is that the Oka principals haven’t shown complete control of their parties and their bases, if any. And in making references to “bases”, we have to excuse Senator Wetang’ula and Cyrus Jirongo because their names appearing in the same sentence as “base” would stretch myths too far.
Political negotiations and coalition building processes are very delicate things. You cannot do it while surrogates such as MPs Ayub Savula (Lugari), Chris Wamalwa (Kiminini) and senators Enoch Wambua (Kitui) and Cleopas Malala (Kakamega) issue ultimatums all over the place. Talking of which, someone needs to get Senator Malala’s foot out of his mouth urgently, or keep him away from a microphone for a very long time.
Even if there was a remote chance that certain formations in the country may actually back ANC leader Mudavadi, Malala shuts the door on this with his every word. It is not difficult to see the reason for Malala’s obsession.
If Mudavadi is on the ballot, while Malala is running for governor of Kakamega, the latter hopes to harvest from the “homeland” vibe brought by a local running for president. But in making it sound as if his entire life depends on it, Malala shows a desperation that blurs the bigger picture.
There are core Raila bases that may not mind a Mudavadi presidency in the future - and the son of Mululu is young enough for a future run – which is why it makes no sense to totally antagonise the ODM boss while pushing for his bid.
I am sure Malala is burdened by his own recent political history. The ANC party actually announced it had expelled him after he campaigned for the ODM candidate, Imran Okoth, in the Kibra by-election in 2019, yet his party had a candidate.
The senator is on record dismissing the ANC as a small tribal party, vowing to stay put at Raila’s feet. Anyone in his position would be a little scared of the prospects of Raila then emerging as the choice of the Oka alliance, making him have to be the prodigal son!
But all this drama points to a lack of political control within the Oka parties, where junior party officials openly castigate their party leaders on the microphones and in the presence of their leaders, over rumours picked from the press!
The final problem with Oka is that the principals have forgotten to calculate their individual values, before they work on their collective position. First, Wetang’ula and Jirongo have no political value, on this or any other planet. Taking them along to negotiations, especially in an alliance where there are three Luhya principals, shows naivety beyond comprehension.
Of the remaining three, Kalonzo is the only one with a party, parliamentary numbers and a vote bloc that make him attractive as a partner to presidential frontrunners Raila and Ruto.
As for Baringo Senator and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, what he may lack in numbers, he more than makes up for in old Kanu grassroots networks and money. Money in politics and electoral contests count for so much. As a plus, Gideon doesn’t appear to want the presidency as desperately, or for mere sake of it, as some of his co principals do. His words actually show he is the only one in the alliance who understands and appreciates the gravity of the crossroads the country finds itself at, with regard to the coming transition.
He and Kalonzo are therefore the most attractive Oka principals to those crunching the numbers in the Uhuru succession. This leaves out Mudavadi. Truth be said, Raila and DP Ruto have shown they intend to go for the Western vote basket directly, rather than through small parties or overrated principals of those parties. Both ODM and UDA have powerful party officials and grassroots leaders scouring the ground in Luhyaland hunting for support.
As far as bases go, this makes Mudavadi the Oka principal whose ground the frontrunners feel they can stomp without any reference to him. Recent defections tell more than a fleeting story about this. Indeed, if as whispered in political circles, Kalonzo and Moi leave to join the Handshake team, Oka will not only remain a purely Luhya affair, but will go down in history as one of the shortest lasting political misadventures of our times.
Coalition builders in future will find a rich reservoir of anecdotes from this, on how not to do it. For all intents and purposes, we are onto a two horse race. By February, the two horses will be fully ready to hit the track. The donkeys we thought would join them will probably fade away. The anticipated third force will be dead on arrival.
