It is the season of political alignments. Regardless of where one comes from, there is a “homeland” coalition trying to advance your interests and secure your future in the next dispensation.
Typical of our politics, every tribe is seeking to consolidate its votes to negotiate the highest stake in the share of national cake.
Over the years, it has fashionable for the big tribes to retreat to homeland coalitions to extract as much concessions as possible from the national alignments. But with the new Upya Movement, the script has changed.
For a long time, the Northern Frontier was a footnote in Kenyan politics, the region that every presidential contender treated as an afterthought. Then they found their voice.
In the words of the movement’s leader, Treasury Cabinet Secretary CS Ukur Yatani, “It is no longer feasible for people who occupy 70 per cent of Kenya’s landmass to play second fiddle in its politics”.
I couldn’t agree more.
A country is only as strong as its most marginalised demographic. For a long time, Northern Kenya has been treated as a low-vote, second-fiddle zone. The image in an ordinary Kenyan’s mind of the North is that of a dry vast land, with camels. Granted, drought has bitten into the region’s ability to compete with the more arable lands to its South, but politically speaking, and in a tight election contest, the six counties up North are set to provide the swing vote with nearly one million in a major battlefront.
The combined total votes of Samburu (92,640), Marsabit (158,339), Mandera (201,465), Wajir (182,094), Garissa (188,286) and Isiolo (81,611). If you add Turkana, West Pokot, Tana River and Lamu, which fall within the framework of the North and Northeastern Development Initiative, then you are looking at a whopping 1.5 million votes up for grabs.
Beyond being merely as a potential vote bloc, the movement has already described itself as “anchored on socioeconomic and compassionate leadership model”, a tool to drive the growth and development of the North.
They will be encouraged by ongoing conversations around the centrality of Isiolo town as a new hub for development, administration and tourism, as well as a launching pad for revolutionary missions to tap the potential for wind-solar energy, underground aquifers and irrigation projects.
Having learnt from coalitions down to its south, the movement has not only sought to consolidate its bargaining power, but has fronted a principal in the form of CS Yatani, the former Marsabit governor, to speak for it.
In a zone that holds unique infamy for its clan and ethnic rivalries, this is an admirable coup. To its credit, and quite unlike many such coalitions in the country, the Upya formation has given its ladies a frontline voice in setting the agenda, including Isiolo Senator Fatuma Dullo, Samburu West MP Naisula Lesuuda and Samburu Woman Representative Maison Leshoomo.
As far as presidential candidates go, the movement has indicated that it will support President Uhuru Kenyatta’s choice. The North and Northeastern part of Kenya has been long famed for “siding with government”. It is not difficult to see why a resource-starved, drought-prone region would prefer the safety of government, but the dynamics in this impending transition on the national stage must surely keep the formation burning the midnight oil.
However, this would be the first time for the region to go into a national election under such a large umbrella. Obviously, when the rubber meets the road and its founders and members have to return to the ground to contest their various seats, its unity will be tested heavily, but isn’t this the way of all coalitions?
At face value, the new movement not only covers a vast landmass, but a larger multi-ethnic base than many regional political coalitions in the country. Variants in regions such as Mt Kenya, Western or the Rift Valley, do not come close to encompassing such a diverse array of ethnicities and religions.
If this unity in diversity goes ahead to become an entry point onto the table where the national cake is shared, then here is a giant whose time has come. The days when the Northern Frontier was known only for such depressing stories as the Wagalla Massacre, the Shifta menace, insecurity, drought, ethnic and clan rivalries, violence and famine must come to an end.
I understand that the movement, which some say is set to become a political party, has tapped professionals from the Asal region to develop an economic blueprint for counties in the region. It helps that CS Yatani sits at the Treasury, and probably has a very good view of what needs to be done and how.
In their own words, the region can no longer be defined by its past and its challenges, but by the opportunities available henceforth. Like all nascent political movements, critics abound, which may be a good thing, because in Kenyan politics, you must worry when nobody is throwing political brickbats at you.
Some opponents have pointed to a lack of a consultative approach in the movement. “Consultative approach” is the most overrated phrase in this country because it often means that some self-entitled politicians or clever mouths weren’t given the pride of place at the high table and thus feel the idea is not complete without them.
It must be said though that some of the criticisms may be based purely on the movement’s decision to back the President’s choice. It is not too hard to read the underlying messages in political grandstanding.
Nevertheless, for the movement, the more has to be the merrier, meaning that its backers with long term political experience such as CS Yatani, MP Adan Keynan and Governor Mohamed Kuti must know that reaching out to more leaders of the Asal zone still left out, and addressing their fears, constitute the most sustainable way to carry the regions aspirations to the next stage.
Fortune indeed favours the brave. After being unveiled only in September this year, the Upya Movement has taken a frontline position in political discourse as a critical player in the Uhuru succession, and a tool of the Northern Renaissance.
In my view, the potential for change, political awakening and growth in the era of devolution, which the formation can achieve if it holds together, is limitless. It is time for the vast area to become a true land of the rising sun, and look forth to a brighter day.
Political movements are very difficult to navigate, given the issues and egos surrounding them, but if they can find rallying points around the unity and development of Northern and North Eastern Kenya, the Upya Movement — even as a future political party — stands on great pedestal to change the face of politics there and in the country.
There will be no more playing second fiddle in national politics!
