Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru on Tuesday defected from Jubilee Party to UDA, the political vehicle Deputy President William Ruto plans to use for his presidential race in 2022.
Governor Waiguru’s reasons for defecting were that the ground has shifted, and the people of Kirinyaga and Mt Kenya are firmly behind DP Ruto.
She went on to explain that last week’s overwhelming response by Kirinyaga residents, who attended Mashujaa Day celebrations at Wang’uru stadium, was proof enough.
ODM leader Raila Odinga and his Wiper counterpart Kalonzo Musyoka ran on a joint ticket in 2013 and 2017 in nail-biting close contests that were only settled in the courts, at least for the first one.
The presidential petition No.1 of 2013 was dismissed on a technicality by the CJ Willy Mutunga-led Supreme Court, while Raila won the 2017 petition that nullified the presidential election.
Either way, the joint ticket made a powerful blitz for the presidency, and who knows, if the IEBC had opened the servers in 2017 as the Supreme Court ordered, maybe the rigging details may have been unearthed?
Maybe, if the elections were repeated on fair and free grounds, Raila and Kalonzo would have triumphed?
Clearly, there was foul play looking at it from a circumstantial perspective.
Raila has been working hard at getting the support of the people of Central Kenya, even as it is widely expected he will be the preferred candidate for the Mt Kenya Foundation.
President Uhuru Kenyatta is also believed to be supporting him in a deal believed to have been crafted in 2017 just after the repeat presidential election that Raila pulled out from.
The Kikuyu are not going to have a serious or popular presidential candidate for the first time in the history of multiparty politics. It is thus opportune for candidates of other ethnicities to go for it.
The Mt Kenya Foundation endorsement is anticipated, even as talk is rife that Raila is considering or is being coerced to pick his running mate from the region. The people supporting Raila are moneyed heavyweights with influence in various dimensions.
It remains to be seen if they have the necessary influence on a populace that appears to defy President Kenyatta, the regional political kingpin.
Can they deliver a significant portion of the close to six votes to Raila?
Many in Raila’s camp may not have the audacity to admit it, but Mt Kenya voters are defiant and will vote for Ruto. Even if the system were to help Raila, actual overwhelming votes would make the elections super-problematic for him.
The voters have proven before that they care that their votes go mainly into one basket. The “Kibaki Tosha” endorsement appears important to Raila, but it is not so.
A recent article quotes the recuperating Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria saying that even without Kalonzo and ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi, Raila can still beat Ruto in a two-horse race.
The ODM leader has won more votes in the politically inharmonious Luhyaland that Mudavadi and others should essentially control, while he has heavyweights and influential leaders still in his camp such as Governor Wycliffe Oparanya.
Raila does not need Mudavadi to win there, but Ruto is likely to get a good number of votes there considering his well-organised political machine.
But Raila needed Kalonzo before, even when he had Mudavadi and Wetang’ula on his side. With unguaranteed support from the Mt Kenya region, where will he get the extra votes to beat Ruto?
Kuria is right that votes in the Coast will be shared. The coastal people have never embraced the government because they believe they have been disenfranchised for too long. The port and other developmental issues make the situation unpredictable, despite Raila having dominated the region for years.
Relations between Kalonzo and Raila don’t appear positive. Kalonzo has declared he is gunning for the presidency and like 2007, he does not intend to turn around.
The Wiper leader has remained steadfast in his relations with Uhuru, even as some people criticised him for calling himself “Kijana wa Mkono” for Uhuru.
He has always suffered wrongful and sometimes unfair branding and labelling by rivals.
Despite this, Kalonzo is a key player for 2022. The worst he can be this time round is a kingmaker.
Relevant experience, having joined government even before Raila and the others, his peaceable reputation locally and internationally and corruption-free record makes him a suitable president for a Kenya that will not consider ethnic voting math and vote for people based on merit.
