ODM chief Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto, the presumptive front runners in 2022, are aggressively scouring for votes as their OKA rivals falter.
With fewer than 300 days to the 2022 General Election, Raila and Ruto have pull off marathon campaigns to win over hearts, minds and pocketbooks. Meantime, the One Kenya Alliance chiefs dither.
Politicians and analysts say Oka lacks a clear political strategy to demonstrate they will remain united as a formidable team against Ruto and Raila.
Oka principal Gideon Moi, who is also the Kanu chairman, has announced his run for president. Kalonzo Musyoko (Wiper) and Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) also want to run.
Kalonzo's Ukambani community has threatened to abandon him, if he runs as Raila's running mate.
Raila is plotting a fifth stab at the presidency, while Ruto is seeking to rewrite history as the country's first second in command to succeed his boss, despite open hostilities.
The One Kenya Alliance also includes Moses Wetang'ula of Ford Kenya but the whole outfit appears to be losing steam.
“The team does not inspire at all, the 2022 presidential contest has already been framed as a contest between Raila and Ruto,” former Wajir Governor Ahmed Abdullahi said.
He said the Oka chiefs will have no political impact in 2022 at all, unless they back Raila.
“It is clear the Oka principals will find it hard to turn the tables on Raila as they are yet to craft a clear formula that can position them as a formidable team,” Abdullahi, who was instrumental in last week’s Azimio La Umoja campaigns in Garissa, said.
There, the region’s political bigwigs, including governors and tycoons, rallied behind Raila.
There are concerns the Oka bandwagon is yet to take off because of growing suspicions and competing interests among the principals.
Gideon’s move to unveil his 2022 presidential bid last week could have triggered jitters among partners amid reports the Baringo senator could be plotting to seal a deal with Raila.
His confidants insist the Kanu boss will go all the way to the ballot, apparently unsettling the Oka team, throwing their initial 2022 plans into disarray.
On Thursday, a member of the Oka technical panel told the Star all is not well in the outfit, despite outward displays of camaraderie. The technical panel was mandated to craft Oka's 2022 path.
Initially, there were indications the quartet would team up with Raila after President Uhuru Kenyatta pushed them to reunite in a formidable force to take on Ruto next year.
The President met the politicians at least twice at both State House in Nairobi and Mombasa to press the to back Raila. Those efforts, however, are said to be a 'work in progress'. It's getting late and where's the progress?
The 2022 battle is a two-horse race, the rest would be donkeys
The Mount Kenya Foundation, a group of business tycoons from the President’s backyard, are said to be aggressively trying to 'persuade' the Oka chiefs to team up with Raila.
The group has met Raila and the Oka bosses to craft a working platform.
On Thursday, former Kasarani MP John Njoroge said the Oka team is groping in the dark and is unlikely to reconfigure the political landscape ahead of the 2022 polls.
“The 2022 battle is a two-horse race, the rest would be donkeys,” Njoroge declared.
The former MP insisted the battle is framed and the four Oka bigwigs have no option but to align themselves with one of the two frontrunners if they want to remain relevant.
“It is less than 300 days to the presidential election and yet we are not seeing any earth-shaking political landscape from the Oka team. They have failed terribly to take off and as it stands, they will not have any impact,” he said.
Former Kajiado West MP Moses ole Sakuda told the Star the future of the Oka team lies in working with Raila.
“Either they unite and support Raila or they hang together in 2022,” he said, adding the raging political dynamics do not favour Oka at all.
The Jubilee Party stalwart and Uhuru ally said the President’s input in the 2022 race will provide a clear direction about his succession.
“The President has hinted about the attributes of his successor and it is no secret who possesses those values; it is Raila. The political direction the President has taken will jolt the Oka chiefs unless they agree with his proposal,” Sakuda said.
The Oka team had last year formed a 12-member committee to craft its 2022 working terms, including expertly proposing a mechanism to pick its ticket. That effort appears to have stalled.
In August, the principals pledged to stay united for the 2022 polls and agreed to the technical team’s proposal to delay naming the Presidential ticket to pave the way for consensus.
However, the meeting was not without intrigues after it emerged that Kalonzo wanted the flag-bearer to be picked based on the seniority of each principal and the number of votes he could bring to the table.
Musalia is said to have called for scientific research to pick the best candidate based on other parameters, including national appeal.
Lugari MP Ayub Savula said the four principals will stay united to the end, amid concerns their hardline positions were hurting the team's chances.
“The Oka team decided to patiently work together for the 2022 elections and in the fullness of time, we shall unveil our team that will face Raila and Ruto,” the ANC deputy party leader said.
Savula has previously insisted that Raila should back Oka in 2022 polls as a gesture of goodwill following the sacrifices the principals have made for him in the last elections.
Analysts say Gideon’s launching his presidential bid could also have exposed the indecision of the Oka team, as Raila and Ruto ramp up their vote hunts.
Raila has ratcheted up his campaigns, taking his Azimio la Umoja forums across the country to build momentum for the official launch of his presidential campaign.
Next week, Raila will storm Ruto’s Rift Valley backyard for a series of meetings, including roadshows in strategic towns and the populous Eldoret.
Ruto is the acknowledged Rift Valley kingpin and Raila is trying to knock him off his perch and Gideon to lessen his impact.
The ODM boss has held at least six other Azimio la Umoja meetings, including in Kisii, Kakamega, Mombasa, Kajiado and Garissa.
He has gone slow on attacking Uhuru, dropped the divisive hustlers versus dynasties narrative and emphasised inclusiveness and wide popular appeal. He has regional blueprints.
Raila is using the platforms to unveil his region-centric agenda, signalling his elaborate plan to market himself as the people’s choice.
Ruto has been holding massive delegations at his Karen residence and has been moving across the country to market his hustler nation as having something for everyone.
As part of his strategy to reach out to the grassroots, Ruto has now devolved his delegate meetings to strategic regions, meeting thousands of voters at his upcountry homes and hotels.
For instance, Ruto has been in Kisii where he held several meetings in a three-day offensive, moving to Kilgoris, Narok. He is due to move to Laikipia county over the weekend as he builds his 2022 momentum.
“Let our opponents come out here and face us instead of waiting to be endorsed or fixed,” Ruto ally and Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua said.
He went on, “The Oka chiefs are busy with boardroom meetings waiting to be shown the way. Our hustler nation presidential candidate is meeting the people face to face.”
Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua said time running out for the Oka chiefs to catch up with their opponents.
“The Oka bosses must be decisive and face their rivals head on,” he said. With Uhuru clearly signalling a Raila endorsement, the Oka chiefs face tough options.
(Edited by V. Graham)
