OMWENGA: Time to shelve BBI or risk losing to DP Ruto

The pandemic will be remembered everywhere for causing untold suffering, death, and disruption of life as we knew it.

Covid-19 also destroyed something that was in the oven in Kenya — the Building Bridges Initiative.

Some say the BBI is Godsend to save the country from electoral violence, destruction of property and deaths, while others say it is a backdoor way of handing the presidency to ODM leader Raila Odinga. A yet smaller subset of naysayers say BBI is a tool for “dynasties” to preserve their hold to power.

Who is right among these groups of people?

That depends on whom you ask, more specifically, what they think about President Uhuru Kenyatta, Deputy President William Ruto and Raila.

If one likes and supports the President, then chances are they will belong in the first group that believes BBI is for the purpose it was gazetted and therefore good for the country. Ditto if one likes or supports Raila for they, too, would say BBI is a manifestation of the considerations that went into producing the historic handshake and, therefore, good for the country.

If one likes or supports Ruto, then chances are they belong in the second group that believes BBI is a backdoor way of handing over the presidency to Raila or a subset of that group that believes BBI is intended to preserve the so-called dynasties.

Ordinarily, when anyone challenges or tries to go against a president, chances are they will not succeed. In the old days, they will not be alive after any such attempt.

American essayist, poet and philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson famously said, “When you strike at the king, you must kill him.”

Ruto has taken many swings at the President, most recently in his daring face-off in the Kiambaa by-election, in which his minions said UDA victory meant the death of Jubilee.

The President, for his part, has demonstrated time and again he is either unwilling or does not know how to politically neuter DP Ruto.

Indeed, everyone expected Ruto to be shown the door soon after Uhuru was sworn in after the 2017 elections but that did not happen and is likely not to happen.

This is because the DP’s position is protected by the Constitution and removal by impeachment is no cakewalk, given the amount of money, power, and mass appeal the man from Sugoi has amassed.

So much so I have said Ruto has always walked with a swagger as though he knows more than the rest of us do, even the keenest observant—and he probably does.

Otherwise, why would Ruto swing at the king as he has done numerous times, very effectively, inflicting and continuing to inflict maximum damage against all of his targets, including the President?

At this rate, if BBI were to be revived, one can take it to the bank that Ruto has what it takes to have it defeated at a referendum. And if he does that, there is no stopping him from being President.

It would be wiser to just shelve BBI and live to fight another day (after 2022 elections).

Meanwhile, here is what we can surmise: Raila without NASA cannot win the presidency.

ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper and Kanu chairman Gideon cannot win the presidency without Raila

Ruto cannot win the presidency without the backing or acquiescence of Uhuru and at least part of the system.

If I were a betting person, I would bet on Raila being rigged in as our next president.

And what an irony that would be.

Samuel Omwenga is a legal analyst and political commentator.