Everyone is testing the wind. Groupings coalesce, fall apart and members seek new, strong parties and partners in the dynamic run-up to 2022 General Election.
The wave of realignments or party hopping has set in, as politicians make moves they believe will give them a lifeline ahead of the election.
Well-aware of the fast-approaching August 9 poll, governors and MPs as well as those out in the cold for years are calculating their next moves. They're informed by the popularity of political parties and the top presidential candidates in their regions.
Cabinet secretaries and principal secretaries, too, among other civil servants with ambitions, are also plotting their future along with presidential candidates.
So far, Deputy President William Ruto appears to have been the biggest beneficiary of the defections, raiding President Kenyatta's Jubilee in Central Kenya.
However, opposition chief Raila Odinga, too, is receiving high-profile defectors, as he seeks to ring-fence his strongholds.
Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, the man recently picked as the Jubilee deputy secretary-general, on Tuesday hinted at decamping to Ruto's hustler camp.
Speaking at a burial in his constituency, the Uhuru leading ally in the Rift Valley said he will "not betray the Kalenjin community" in the succession battle.
However, asked for a comment by the Star on Thursday, Kutuny made a u-turn, dismissing the audio as propaganda.
"I can not respond to propaganda,"he said Kutuny in a text message to the Star
Laikipia Woman Representative Catherine Waruguru who has been on Uhuru's side has also given signs of switching camps.
She told the Star on Tuesday that she is “paying attention to what her supporters are saying”.
Waruguru said the Jubilee Party is capsizing and she will not be one of the casualties.
“The Wheelbarrow wave is too strong in Laikipia as in other parts of the country. I will take the direction my people will tell me to follow,” she told the Star on the phone.
According to the IEBC’s 2022 roadmap, public officers seeking to run for office must resign by February 9 next year. The law requires public officers planning to vie to resign six months to a general election.
The IEBC's Election Operations plan indicates that nominations for presidential candidates will take place between May 30 and June 10 next year.
Official campaigns for the 2022 General Election will run from May 10, after presidential candidates submit their papers to the IEBC, to August 6, two days to polling day.
The presidential contest is shaping up to be a three horse race — Deputy President William Ruto, ODM leader Raila Odinga and the One Kenya Alliance flagbearer.
Oka brings together Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Gideon Moi (Kanu) and Moses Wetang'ula (Ford Kenya).
Thus, politicians are planning their survival, informed by the heartbeat of their communities and the competing interests for the coveted tickets. And they're looking for powerful backers.
Three weeks ago, the Deputy President, who is building his United Democratic Alliance to turn the tables against the ruling Jubilee Party in its strongholds, bagged some of President Uhuru Kenyatta's key allies.
This revealed his growing influence in the vote-rich Central region.
In a possible sign of Jubilee's dwindling prospects, the DP received at his Karen Residence Kiambu Woman Representative Gathoni Wamuchomba, MPs David Gikaria (Nakuru Town East), Gabriel Kago (Githunguri) and Samuel Gichobe (Subukia).
They were all elected on the Jubilee ticket in 2017 and since the handshake between Uhuru and Raila in 2018, they sided with the President in criticising Ruto who opposes the BBI referendum.
Wamuchomba told the Star she was decamping to the DP’s hustler movement due to pressure from her supporters, saying the Ruto wave in Mt Kenya is strong.
“I am following what our people are telling us. They have affirmed they support the Deputy President and who am I not to listen to them? They have also rejected the merger of Jubilee and ODM,” she said.
Several others from Mt Kenya, including governors, MPs and MCAs, are expected to join the hustler movement represented by UDA.
The DP last week disclosed that by November this year, there will be an exodus crossing over to UDA.
On Tuesday, leaders and professionals from West Pokot county met to discuss the political direction the community should take.
Over the weekend, West Pokot Governor John Lonyangapuo announced he was not defending his seat on the Kanu ticket that sponsored him in 2017. He said he is forming a new outfit.
The Tuesday meeting in Baringo county was attended by Lonyangapuo, Pokot South MP David Pkosing and former Tiaty MP Asman Kamama.
They team agreed to revamp th Kenya Union Party which is expected to enter into a pre-election agreement with UDA .
On Thursday, Pkosing, who chairs the Roads and Transport committee in the National Assembly, told the Star the Pokot community will align itself with a party providing a clear development plan for their county.
“We want first of all unite our community. In the last election, we went in separate directions, MPs were elected on the Jubilee ticket, while the governor, senator and a number of MCAs were elected on Kanu's ticket," he said.
"Right now, we are getting a neutral party that will bring all of us together,” he told the Star during a phone interview.
The MP said since their party will not field a presidential candidate, they will follow the will of the majority community.
“If it will be the Deputy President, so be it. If they say take a different direction, we shall abide by that. The community will decide. Now we are building our own home so we can use it to negotiate. Those interested in our votes will come to ask for them,” he said.
Lonyangapuo, once a Kanu diehard, had hinted that he will be supporting Ruto’s presidential bid only to recoil when BBI gained momentum.
The former senator has fallen out with top Kanu officials over what he termed has the party frustrating his development agenda and disciplining MCAs allied to him.
Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja, elected on the JP ticket has moved to Mudavadi's ANC camp.
Sakaja, the former TNA chairman who is eyeing the Nairobi governor's seat, is considering the ANC ticket, giving him an edge in appealing to the huge Luhya vote.
Last week, the former deputy Prime Minister during the coalition government hosted governors Ali Korane (Garissa) and Francis Kimemia (Nyandarua).
Both Korane and Kimemia were elected on Jubilee ticket in 2017 but as the prospects of the ruling outfit wane, it is understood some of Uhuru's allies are shopping for “friendly parties that can easily be accepted in their regions”.
Two former Jubilee point men at the Coast in 2017 have decamped to Raila's fold in readiness for the campaigns.
Former Kilifi North MP Gideon Mung’aro and businessman Suleiman Shahbal, who were both running for governor of Kilifi and Mombasa, respectively, are now aligned with ODM.
Mung’aro hosted the former Prime Minister on Tuesday in Kilifi at a function snubbed by Governor Amason Kingi. He is expected to clinch the ODM ticket to succeed Kingi.
Last month, Shahbal handed in his letter of resignation from the Jubilee Party and announced he is joining ODM.
In the 2013 General Election, the businessman-cum-politician unsuccessfully ran for governor on the Wiper ticket. Hassan Joho of ODM won.
In the run-up to the 2017 election, the businessman quit Wiper and joined Jubilee . Again he failed to dethrone Joho.
In his letter dated July 6, Shahbal informed Jubilee secretary general Raphael Tuju that he was quitting the ruling party.
“In exercise of my Constitutional and legal rights to belong to a political party of my choice and guided by the law through Section 14 of the Political Parties Acts, 2011, I wish to resign as a member of the Jubilee Party,” the letter read.
In a previous interview with the Star, Shahbal said the Jubilee campaigns were marred with inhouse problems that made it difficult to succeed.
“The 2017 election was very problematic within Jubilee because there were two parallel campaigns being run at the same time,” he said.
(Edited by V. Graham)
