The late firebrand politician, Martin Shikuku, went to jail for declaring the ruling party, Kanu, dead in the late 1970s.
Thankfully, liberation heroes sacrificed their blood and sweat in subsequent years so that we from future generations can say this and still sleep soundly next to our spouses. We thank them for such small mercies.
I laugh my lungs dry every time either Jubilee vice chairman David Murathe or secretary general Raphael Tuju announces that President Uhuru Kenyatta will continue being the party leader after the 2022 elections.
They must be from another planet.
If they were from this land, they would know the history of the last five or so multiparty elections, and would know that the ruling party from the previous election practically dies by the next.
We can go back to Kanu of 2002, and how after President Daniel Moi left, Kanu was gasping for breath by the time the 2007 elections came. The Narc coalition, which had resoundingly won the 2002 poll, was also dead and buried by 2007.
President Mwai Kibaki sought re-election on the PNU ticket, and that party had faded into oblivion by 2013, when President Kenyatta was sworn in having run on TNA (part of Jubilee coalition with William Ruto's URP)
Jubilee rose from the ashes of TNA in the 2017 election, and all indications are that we can confidently hold its requiem mass.
ODM doesn’t get as much credit as it deserves in the multiparty era. Formed in 2005, it has remained a premier factor in at least three elections and two plebiscites, making it the longest lasting big party since 1992.
Granted, it may not be the original ODM-K of 2005, after Kalonzo Musyoka and Daniel Maanzo fled with the original instruments in 2007, forcing Raila and his group to buy another variant from lawyer Mugambi Imanyara in time for the elections.
Granted, too, that the party relies hugely on Raila’s immense political might and charisma. But you cannot underestimate the sheer organisational and grassroots reach of the party in the last 15 years. In that same period, there have been four elections and four ruling parties! How about that?
In the wake of the defeat of Jubilee in the Juja parliamentary by-election, senior figures such Kiambu Woman Representative Gathoni wa Muchomba, and Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru have made comments to the effect that it’s time to “meet behind the tent and consult.”This is Kenyan street lingo for “it’s time to reexamine our stand."
Simply put, the Jubilee 'deep state' is already questioning if the experiment is working at all. If I was to translate these words my way, they are saying it may just be time to leave Jubilee and find political shelter elsewhere.
In all honesty, the only place the party was still left with a semblance of presence was in Uhuru’s Central Kenya backyard. If they are now meeting behind the proverbial tent, then the only things left are the imposing Pangani office complex and the lone voices of Murathe and Tuju.
To explain this strange pattern, you have to understand how the political industrial complex works. The players retreat to political parties at election time only because they are vessels for elections.
Once in power, focus shifts to the get-rich-quick tenders and procurement networks that feed the greed of an entire generation, which are within the civil service apparatus, rather than the political parties.
For elected leaders, as long as their monthly contribution is sent to the party that got them elected, the political gods can take care of the rest. Then when the next election approaches, a new vessel that promises utopian triumphs and Asian-tiger growth is sought.
The cycle continues, but it is a cycle that has no time to grow the institution in the grassroots and establish a real presence. This brings me to the most interesting part, in view of the fact that the President is retiring.
This week, he indicated that he will be supporting one of the Nasa chiefs in the coming election. I am not sure which one. The one who writes only his own name when asked to list his party’s senators? Might it be the one whose homeland has three governors, with none aligned to him? Or the one whose own governor is from ODM, while he belongs to another party? These things do not take miracles.
If as stated earlier, Jubilee will be dying or dead by the time enter the peak of this electoral cycle, Uhuru does not have the luxury of supporting someone whose own party is a crawling tortoise stuck in a spot waiting to be pushed.
Which is why I argued last week that the President has run out of carrots to dangle, and even if he wants to publicly state that he will be backing one of the Nasa chiefs, he knows for sure there is only one with the ability to both run a winning campaign as well fill the void left by the collapse of the Jubilee electoral networks, if they ever existed in the first place.
The President will most likely be the last to know when the shell he runs becomes completely empty. The early signs for now are that fewer and fewer elected leaders will be mentioning the name of the party.
As time goes by, and people begin declaring their interest, or civil servants start resigning to join elective contests, Uhuru will probably be surprised that his erstwhile close friends will be picking parties other than his Jubilee. But the game is the game, and we invite the President to indulge in a bit of history and he will realise with great concern that the politics of principle only exists in the books we read.
Out here in the real world, all who have surrounded him were serving their interests, and the sweetener was the availability of tenders offered on a first-name basis, at lightning speed.
Those who want to sustain their entry tickets into the gravy train have picked futuristic vessels already, and Jubilee isn’t one of them. Like its predecessors, Jubilee is about to rest in peace.
When those currently “meeting behind the tent” reemerge, they will be singing different tunes, and there will be no time for the President to remind them how far they have come together. Don’t hate the player, hate the game!
