One of the most fascinating periods in human history will always be the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
This the one month, four-day confrontation between the Soviet Union and the US that nearly plunged the world into a full-blown nuclear war, and possible Armageddon.
I have watched documentaries and read a tonne of books about it, and still can’t have enough.
The most intriguing part of it is when US President JK Kennedy had to handle the disparate voices within his security establishment, with hawkish generals and CIA chiefs demanding a show of power by launching a pre-emptive strike. JFK sent his brother, Attorney General Robert Kennedy, on a quiet diplomatic shuttle to cool the embers, and get Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev to do what was right with and for the globe.
When the crisis ended, without a nuclear warhead landing on some hapless city, the lesson for the world was the same as what country music singer Kenny Rogers would express in his runaway hit later, Son you don’t have to fight to be a man.
Several weeks before the Bonchari by-election, I argued here that the most ideal situation would have been for Jubilee to extend the same benevolence to ODM it had shown Wiper during the Machakos Senate by-election, or the covert and overt support it had shown Ford Kenya in Kabuchai and ANC in Matungu.
I am from the old school of thought that presupposes that those in government consume raw intelligence from their security agencies, and the most copious consumers in my view, would be the president and his Interior CS Fred Matiang’i. From it, I suppose that they should have been able to read the coming whitewash, and should have opted to ride on the back of Nyanza’s biggest party, ODM. But it is possible I overrate these people. In Bonchari, for Jubilee, the soundtrack at State House and Harambee House should really have been “son you don’t have to fight to be a man”.
The wisdom out on the street is that the President may not really have been too averse to sitting out Bonchari, but his security high priest may have wanted to show he was the top guy in the neighbourhood.
Ultimately, rather than the soft power needed to win a political contest, the police committed a huge gaffe by raiding the home of Kisii Governor Ongwae, and practically handed the seat to ODM. This also brings forth an interesting question: If ODM has finally won a seat where Jubilee hadn’t withdrawn in its favour, but failed each time Jubilee purported to support it in recent times, could that have answered an intriguing question of whether Jubilee has in fact been a burden on its shoulders all along?
Talking of ODM, there emerged interesting internal dynamics at play. The party doesn’t have a single MP in Kisii. So, apart from the trio of Governor Ongwae, Senator Sam Ongeri and nominated Senator Janet Ongera, it was taken for granted that elected leaders from neighbouring Homa Bay and Migori counties would be the “home team” for the campaigns. Migori Woman Rep Pamela Adhiambo appeared. The rest didn’t. Either they didn’t believe their party stood a chance, or the many unseen strings in the public sphere made it impossible for some to show their hand.
Rumour also had it that there was a powerful caucus within ODM lobbying the party chief to withdraw their candidate in favour of Jubilee. The heavy lifting, therefore, remained to ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna, often vilified for failures in previous by-elections, and not properly feted for the success of this one.
Having run out of MPs to throw around, he seems to have settled on his MCAs to be his supporting cast. They did a stellar job, led by Homa Bay nominated MCA and the winner of the Ms President TV Show, Nereah Amondi Oketch, whose vote-protection antics were trending from videos shared as early as 10am on voting day.
For her, the moment of glory didn’t even stop there, as news filtered in the same day that she had emerged as one of the best graduates from the Africa Liberal Network training programme. For Sifuna and his team of humble campaigners, the stones that were rejected had literally become the chief cornerstones of Bonchari.
As for President Uhuru Kenyatta and Jubilee, defeats in Bonchari and Juja, and especially the latter, were a rude awakening, with another contest yet to come in Kiambaa.
There are three things you can’t hide in this world — the sun, the moon and a lame duck. With every passing electoral contest, the myth that Uhuru is in control of his backyard and can channel it to someone in 2022 gets buried in a deep grave.
But you must spare a thought for the One Kenya Alliance of Musalia Mudavadi, Gideon Moi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula. In Bonchari and Juja, they announced with the enthusiasm of well-fed peacocks, that they were throwing their collective weight behind the Jubilee candidates.
Clearly, “weight” here was used with a large dose of exaggeration, because when the dust had settled, their collective contribution amounted to naught. Their very loud silence afterwards is brought to you by reality. It is true that politics is the only occupation where an empty balloon can compete with a bag of sand on the weighing scale. The drama doesn’t quite end there though.
In Juja, the UDA brigade had declared they wouldn’t field a candidate to avoid a direct confrontation with the President. They instead sent Moses Kuria’s PEP to the constituency like a space probe to a faraway planet. If it had gone wrong, Kuria was going to be the one to take the presidential heat. But he went in and won. What did our UDA friends immediately do? They announced they were now going into Kiambaa too, and asked Kuria to step aside!
If you ask me, they have overplayed their hands too soon. Kuria should have been allowed to carry his Juja momentum into Kiambaa. As things stand, UDA may force the President to personally campaign in Kiambaa, the same confrontation they purported to avoid in Juja.
Like a wounded lion, Uhuru is probably coming for the UDA formation in Kiambaa, and they will most likely get a thorough whitewash. The way they have treated their victorious partners in Juja is so callous that you can’t put it beyond Kuria to campaign for Jubilee in Kiambaa.
For neutrals, like in a football match, let the game begin!
Edited by EKibii
