• Raila cannot be too comfortable either because the ruthlessness with which Uhuru and his advisers have gone after Ruto has telltale signs they may do the same to him.
• Wiser counsel for Raila is to have Plan B ready, which may just be influencing in who is in the lineup for the next government, if he is not in it.
Loyalty has a price to pay and good dividends if one manages to avoid paying the price long enough to be rewarded with the change of fortunes on account of the loyalty.
Individual loyalty morphs into collective loyalty among those it is demanded the benefit of those demanding it, who must be someone with enough carrots and sticks to reward or punish at will, if the loyalty is not given.
This being the cardinal rule, one must carefully consider and reconsider when choosing to give the loyalty or, even more importantly, when to deny it. This is especially if they have a big cane ready to whip away in the event you deny them the loyalty.
Put another way, there is a balancing that has to be done. Wiser counsel is not to give the loyalty, unless you are willing to pay the price.
Conversely, if by remaining loyal to one person at the expense of another you are able to avoid punishment for the disloyalty, then if the person you risk being loyal to rises in power in comparison to the one you denied, then chances are he or she will reward you tenfold.
We are witnessing this phenomenon playing right before our eyes in regards to Kenyan politics.
First, there was the warmup by ODM removing Senator Ledama Olekina from the Senate Committee Public Accounts and Investment Committee.
This was on grounds that he was disloyal and embarrassed his fellow ODM members by not supporting a candidate for the chairmanship they had agreed to support. Olekina, instead, made a deal with Jubilee senators and was elected as CPAIC chairman by Jubilee, not ODM to which he belongs.
ODM’s reaction was swift and hard: They removed Olekina from CPAIC and will, therefore, not be chairing this powerful committee as he hoped.
[The High Court on Monday temporarily barred Senate Speaker from removing Olekina from the position of CPAIC chairman]
The big showdown in this game of politics and loyalty, however, came when President Uhuru Kenyatta finally took bold, unmistakable steps in making permanent the end of his political marriage of convenience with DP William Ruto.
He purged Ruto loyalists from Jubilee and Senate leadership.
In both cases, those showing disloyalty to someone with a big cane have been whupped thoroughly.
Question is, are there rewards that await them even as they are cry now?
All that we know points to absolutely, not.
Instead, things could go really, really, bad for all those who are being punished for disloyalty and others in the pipeline. This will become painfully so for them, if not already because those they are showering loyalty to have no means or ability to protect them from the heavy axe wielded by those who must have the loyalty, especially the President.
The other question is, who benefits in the Jubilee purge?
No doubt Uhuru benefits tremendously as he emerges stronger and in total control of Jubilee to do as he pleases, especially in handpicking his successor, or the role he will play in the next government. To be sure, Uhuru will be in the next government.
The loser is obviously Ruto as he is slowly being reduced in size and stature to the point he will soon or later become unrecognisable. Raila, however, cannot be too comfortable either because the ruthlessness with which Uhuru and his advisers have gone after Ruto has telltale signs they may do the same to him.
Wiser counsel for Raila is to have Plan B ready, which may just be influencing in who is in the lineup for the next government, if he is not in it.
Samuel Omwenga is a legal analyst and political commentator