CRYSTAL BALL

Last year’s dark political clouds will only get bigger, darker

What happens in the next three years will be decided this year.

In Summary

• The gap between Uhuru and Ruto will expand as they seek more allies and work at cross-purposes.

• BBI is the show stopper this year and in the years preceding 2022. You'd better read it to avoid opposing or supporting it out of ignorance.

You don't need a political crystal ball to know dark clouds will get darker and thicker this year.
CRYSTAL BALL: You don't need a political crystal ball to know dark clouds will get darker and thicker this year.
Image: WRITERSEDIT.COM
President Uhuru Kenyatta, Deputy President William Ruto and Raila Odinga during the launch of the Building Bridges Initiative report at Bomas of Kenya, Nairobi, on November 27, 2019.
2020 POLITICS: President Uhuru Kenyatta, Deputy President William Ruto and Raila Odinga during the launch of the Building Bridges Initiative report at Bomas of Kenya, Nairobi, on November 27, 2019.
Image: ANDREW KASUKU

It is 2020! Hurray! Not so fast. This year, your eardrums risk bursting what with the ear-shuttering noises from Jubilee Party’s political novices, veterans and wannabes competing for President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President’s William Ruto attention.

If you thought last year’s political squabbles were bad, wait until you live through this year’s battles and wars fought on Jubilee and the opposition’s doorsteps.

It won’t be a smooth ride politically speaking for squeaking Jubilee Party mandarins and foot soldiers. The political dark clouds that hovered above Jubilee last year, will get bigger, darker and thicker.

 
 

The gap between Uhuru and Ruto will expand as they seek more allies and work at cross-purposes. The former, of course, will be vouching for BBI while the latter will be building muscles, big enough to resist it in its entirety. The resultant fireworks will keep us wishing we were dreaming. 

For the opposition, the script will continue to shift as Nasa leaders further engage in hide-and-seek midnight meetings with Jubilee top dogs to discuss 2022 executive positions as spelt out in the Building Bridges Initiative proposals.

Some of his close allies will/might shift allegiance to safeguard their 2022 ambitions, but the majority will stick with the man from Sugoi through the bad and the ugly. For instance, the DP’s Central Kenya confidants, fearing voter backlash, will be forced back to the drawing board for friendlier alliances.

This year will see Ruto consolidate his allies as he works to acquire more men and women to tighten up his quest for 2022 presidency. His dream to be the next occupant of the House on the Hill is on course in spite of the huge BBI boulder rolling down the hill to crush his big plans.

Some of his close allies will/might shift allegiance to safeguard their 2022 ambitions, but the majority will stick with the man from Sugoi through the bad and the ugly. For instance, the DP’s Central Kenya confidants, fearing voter backlash, will be forced back to the drawing board for friendlier alliances.

This tells you BBI is the showstopper this year and in the years preceding 2022. You'd better read it to avoid opposing or supporting it out of ignorance.

One of the top proponents of BBI, Opposition leader Raila Odinga, has set the ball rolling by telling Kenyans to get ready this year for a popular vote for BBI.

Raila and his Handshake buddy Uhuru have prepared the ground for sensitisation campaigns amid resistance from Ruto’s camp. The Tangatanga group has refused to swallow the BBI prescription by Kieleweke if the next general election does not allow for the election of a president by the people as has been the practice for years. It is at this juncture that the Uhuru-Raila and Ruto go different ways.

 

The most contentious issue in BBI is the composition of the Executive and how the holders of these positions are elected or elected. While Kieleweke is contented with the proposed Executive, Tangatanga commandos are opposing any voice calling for a change to the Constitution.

This year being Phase Two of the battle royal for power, all eyes will be trained on the referendum as the Big Five (Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi) jostle for 2022 power, each trying to outsmart the others.

Suspicions will increase in both Jubilee and Nasa. The President will accelerate his search for new alliances with his eyes trained on keeping the friends he has managed to draw to his side, while putting the pedal to the metal as he searches for more allies; so will Ruto, Raila, et al.

Uhuru might have won Wiper’s leader Kalonzo Musyoka heart. But he shouldn’t celebrate yet. This politician has for many years exhibited chameleon-like habits that could win him a Nobel for two-faced people, nay comic geniuses.

The Ukambani kingpin speaks from both sides of his mouth depending on the political temperatures in his backyard. Just before returning to Uhuru’s fold over the Christmas period, Kalonzo had embraced Ruto’s camp to spite his political detractors in Ukambani who campaigned for ODM’s candidate in the Kibra by-election.

He sauntered into Ruto’s camp in late November but a few days later in early December, he was back in Uhuru’s stable, something that angered his confidant, former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama so much that he declared himself to be the Ukambani kingpin.

What happens in the next three years will be decided this year.

Stay tuned.