Long after he shredded the MoU with Raila Odinga and rigged the man out in 2007, former President Mwai Kibaki did a very good job of pretending Raila was not the Prime Minister he was.
To everyone’s surprise, Kibaki did this well, and ever so cleverly, slowly chipping away at what little power Raila had as part of the deal that saved our country from a civil war. So much so such that by the time the 2013 elections came about, the fix was in. Raila would not see the inside of State House as President.
He was without the power or tools to stop it. One cannot talk about this without being reminded of the Swahili saying, “Asante ya punda ni mateke” ("The thanks of a donkey, is a kick").
No one in their right mind disputes that Raila was a major factor, if not the only reason we had President Kibaki in 2002, and not the Uhuru presidency. Were Kibaki not to be President, it would have been Uhuru.
No one else had a shot and it’s irrelevant whether that person had 70 per cent support from all voters. All that mattered and still does is who the system wants or does not want as president, and by the system here we mean those who control how votes are counted.
Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin put this unwritten law down almost a century ago: It is not the voters that count, and countless individuals have obeyed and mercilessly enforced it since.
So, instead of returning the 'Kibaki Tosha' favour and endorsing Raila to succeed him in 2013, Kibaki did everything he could privately to make sure that did not happen — while publicly remaining convincingly neutral.
All that notwithstanding, Raila knew he had one thing Kibaki and anyone else could not take away from him — the people.
An overwhelming number of Kenyans believed and wanted Raila to succeed Kibaki in 2013 but the system had a different plan.
As always, the system’s plan prevails notwithstanding the resistance and it did, making sure Raila did not become President.
To be sure, many of us believe unlike 2007, when Raila clearly won against Kibaki, this was not the case in 2013 as neither he nor Uhuru won. Had there been a run-off, as should have been the case, Uhuru would have easily won against Raila, given the dynamics of the time. Cord had its own internal electoral problems that prevented a sweep of Uhuru in the first place.
Is Uhuru following the Kibaki script?
Why would Uhuru not want his deputy, William Ruto, to succeed him?
Is it the case that personally, Uhuru does not mind or wouldn’t mind Ruto to succeed him but is caught between that and going against the wishes of powerful forces whose minds are made up that Ruto cannot be President? And still at it, rooting for Ruto would prevent his buddy Raila from ever becoming one.
The answer is not as simple or amenable to analyse in this space, suffice it to say that in one stroke, Uhuru can both revise history and make it.
People of my generation or those who study Kenyan politics recall it being said Mzee Jomo Kenyatta used to say to his top aides and other minions, “Ukipata nyakua lakini ukishikwa, usinikimbilie” ("If you find, grab, but if busted, don’t come running to me for help").
If Uhuru succeeds in having Ruto stopped from becoming President in 2022 on because he has grabbed too much, he would have atoned for his father. If Raila succeeds him as President courtesy of the handshake, Uhuru would have atoned for his own political sins related to 2013 and 2017 elections.
That’s an atonement that will make him and his father shine even brighter for posterity.
