Thomas Hobson (1544-1631) was an English stable owner who famously offered his customers any horse they wanted as long as it was the first one. In those days, travelers on horseback had to change their horse every so often. They left behind their tired horse and took another on their journey and there were stable owners who were on hand to offer the service.
Cambridge, where Hobson ran his stables, was a popular change-over stop for those travelling north. As all people often do, they chose the best horse, leaving Hobson with the old, sickly or haggard horses.
To overcome this problem, Hobson made you take only the first horse, whatever its condition. Many riders, seeing that their favoured horse was next, waited for someone to pick up the first horse, then proceed to their favoured horse.
Ruto is essentially facing two horses, one is good and the other bad. He cannot have the general election, for which he seems very well set, without having to deal with the referendum. Next year, 2019. is the year Ruto must put his head together on what he will do for the anticipated referendum. Will he play dumb until the referendum passes, then concentrate on the general election? Or will he have to endure the bad horse that the referendum is, and forget the general election altogether?
MORTON'S FORK
For now, Ruto is working against the Dynasties who have overtly declared their support for the referendum. Ruto might have to offer them their pound of flesh if he is to keep the remainder of the flesh. He must also know that if he does not pass the referendum, or at least appear to be on the winning side, his chances in 2022 will be greatly diminished.
If he stands against the referendum and loses, then it follows that he will almost inevitably lose the general election as happened with Kibaki in 2005 and in 2007. This latter situation is known as Morton’s Fork, where both outcomes of any choice are undesirable. And his detractors know it too well.
If the referendum passes with him on board, he could just work with enough alliances to become the Prime Minister anyway. But it seems that the creation of other positions is what is worrying him. He might have to work with people he does not really like. Whatever the outcome, he must be on the referendum bandwagon if he has to have a fighting chance in 2022.
FUTURESCOPE 2019
This is our last year in the ‘teens’ and we all hope we shall now finally mature as a democracy. It was one hundred years ago that Kenya prepared to take part in its first electoral politics. But as usual, as we approach another electioneering period in 2020, our campaigning gets even more intense and uglier.
The Crystal Ball tells me that our corruption activities will get even more frenzied in 2019, as they often do before elections. Perhaps what we should look out for is our corruption ‘guard dog’, the EACC. We hope that under a new head, it will bark less and bite more.
Unfortunately for us, scandals no longer provide the kind of ammo to fire salvos at Government. You can thank the Handshake for that. It was the cream that came into the coffee. We are now all going into a slumber. There is, however, something unsettling about the year 2019. This is the year the tempo for the referendum will pick up and the anticipated changes to the Constitution will give us more talking (and fighting) points.
THE YEAR OF THE PIG
We are entering the Year of the Pig, according to the Chinese Zodiac. The Pig is described by the Chinese Zodiac to be a sleepy, not-so-intelligent animal, lazy and clumsy, eating all the time. How else could I have described the Kenyan Member of Parliament? Pigs are also said to be sluggish, naïve, gullible and never really intending to harm others.
This is without doubt the year of the Kenyan MP! In 2018 we saw the gluttonous side of our MPs. They increased salaries and perks, bribed their way into passing Bills or shooting them down and practically snorted around for their favourite political puppeteer. Our thieves who ended up facing House Committees often emerged stronger, with nothing more than a tap on the wrist. Only for the DPP to open their eyes.
Methinks there is no better description for our Parliament, but it seems were have not seen the last of them. With a looming referendum, I shudder at the thought of what will happen in Parliament.
ALLIANCE SHIFTING
We are now getting into the place where the politicians position and re-position themselves for the next round of electoral politics. We have two major electoral events — the Referendum and the General Election. This year 2019 will see us conduct intense alliance-building. Already the formations are in place. The alliances will be about individuals as they will be about communities.
I predict that there will be a further weakening of the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance, as each of them will be seeking new partners. The glue that brought them together (ICC, PEV, forest evictions et al) is now seemingly weakened irreparably and may just fall apart closer to the intended referendum or election.
Both communities’ interests are considerably different now — one is looking to see how best its interests will be catered for in a post-Uhuru presidency while the other is eying the Executive as it is and don’t seem to want to have it split. They are more likely therefore to vote differently during the Referendum which is increasingly the barometer for the health of their alliance. They are already busy forging other regional alliances that will use to leverage their position going forward. In that aspect, my prediction will be that the Kikuyus and the Kalenjins will increasingly part ways in 2019 and by 2020, they will not see eye to eye. Already Uhuru Kenyatta has promised Kenyans a ‘surprise’ choice in 2022.
RISE OF THE ALLIANCE BROKERS
There are some quiet or not-so-quiet individuals who are not in elective politics but have the ear of the major political players on both sides of the political divide. One important broker was the late Mark Too who brought together retired President Moi and Raila Odinga earning the moniker ‘Bwana Dawa.’ Nobody knows whether he would have brought together Ruto and Raila, a relationship that seems irreparably damaged. There are new Alliance brokers today. These include Cotu Chairman Francis Atwoli, Presidential Advisor David Murathe and you might also throw in Karanja Kibicho and Nancy Gitau among others.
Atwoli has championed Luhya unity bringing together the major political players of the Western region, though not always with much success. Working in a region that is characterized by highly fractious politics, Atwoli has tried to get them speaking with one voice. Luhya leaders have lately come together in what appears to be in spite of and not because of Atwoli. Whatever the case, it will be hard to know if the closing of ranks between Ford-K Leader Moses Wetangula still smarting from betrayal by ODM/NASA and Musalia Mudavadi will hold. Mudavadi is gravitating towards his relative Gideon Moi and who in turn is gravitating towards Raila Odinga. There are also several Kikuyu leaders who gravitating towards Musalia. For Gideon Moi, it appears to be that the bitter enemy (Raila) of his bitter enemy (Ruto) is now his sweet friend. Wetangula on the other hand is already gravitating towards DP Ruto who is not seeing eye to eye with Musalia, bringing to question the much hyped Luhya unity. It seems that they are coming together so that they can fall apart.
David Murathe on the other hand does not envision the continuation of the Kalenjin-Kikuyu political duopoly into the future. You might add into that mix Ruto’s enemies Nancy Gitau and Karanja Kibicho. They are probably seeing a post-referendum Kikuyu-Luo-Luhya-Kamba alliance that should work things out during the General Election. It is not clear which horse they will be backing, but they have no shortage of names, and one of them will not be Ruto.
RUTO INTENSIFIED
DP Ruto’s political energy is his greatest strength and also his greatest weakness. He will approach 2019 as he has all the other years – with 2022 in mind. He is however increasingly finding himself an island and he will be tempted to go on the overdrive to keep his presidential intentions on track. The more energy he displays, the more he may be getting further from the goal. Sometimes it is better to just let things be if you are to stand a chance with them. The stronger you go for a lady, the harder it becomes to get her. In 2019 he will apply his energy towards alliance building and his focus has lately been Western and Coast. Both places however, tend to be mercurial in their voting and may not provide him with the kind of gravitas that he needs to fend off the burgeoning Luo-Kikuyu alliance brought about by the Handshake. In 2013, the item that shaped the election dynamic was the ICC. In 2020 and in 2022 the dynamic seems to be the Handshake. Ruto must therefore cleverly maneuver around its potentially devastating effects. Some analysts have opined that it would be hard for anyone to transition from Deputy to President in one single attempt, predicting that Ruto will (should) lose to the current formation but live to fight another day. It was in fact a similar Kikuyu-Luo-Luhya-Kamba alliance that Uhuru lost to in 2002. He lived to fight another day and won. But Ruto’s stubborn energy will not allow him to think like that. He will intensify himself. If I were him, I would rather slow down, let the others run ahead, but keeping the close tab of a marathon athlete behind a pacemaker. Then apply his energy the in the final lap.
Whatever happens, may I wish all my readers a Happy and Prosperous New Year 2019!
