The 2017 election fever coupled with the formation of the Jubilee Alliance Party and the political ripples bubbling in the Rift Valley are some of the factors that are fuelling the jostling for political power in the Coast region. They are catalysing the process of political change here. Party alignments, realignments and defections are in the offing. In the recent past, Mombasa politicians Ahmed Shahbal (Wiper party) and Ramadhan Kajembe (ODM party) defected to join JAP in a move characterised by their opponents as inconsequential.
The core issue facing the Coast’s shifting political sands is whether the region should remain in ODM, join JAP or form a homegrown party in readiness for the 2017 elections. Two schools of thought have emerged to chart the region’s political path. At issue is about how best to deal with the region’s historical injustices that have been neglected by previous governments since independence.
The first school of thought argues that the future of politics in the Coast region remains in the continued support for the existing parties, in this case ODM. This status quo position is fronted by Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho who is one of the national deputy leaders of the party. This group considers ODM as the party of change – it has fought against imperial presidency, supported devolution and most importantly, it has spoken loudly against the marginalisation of coastal communities, including landlessness and land-grabbing. The Joho-led group views the Jubilee Alliance as an extension of the Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel Arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki administrations, which failed to resolve the region’s historical injustices and marginalisation. For the Joho group, an ODM-led government shall be committed to helping resolve some of these problems afflicting coastal communities.
The second school of thought is fronted by Kilifi North Member of Parliament Gideon Mung’aro. This group similarly agrees with the Joho group that marginalisation and historical injustices in this region are indeed the main issues; the problem is how to handle them. According to the Mung’aro group, the way to bring about development and to raise the standards of living for the marginalised communities is to work with the government of the day. The group suggests that in order to work with government, the region should form a homegrown political party, which it can use as bargaining chip to influence policy and action in an arrangement of power sharing. The Mung’aro group believes that the Coast region has been in opposition politics too long and the time for change is now.
The group argues that the Coast region’s prolonged massive support for ODM has not changed the lives of coastal communities — not even when ODM leader Raila Odinga became Prime Minister in the coalition government with Kibaki. On the contrary, they contend, the Kibaki side of government appointed more coastal people to national job positions than did the Raila side of government. They give as an example, the Ministry of Lands docket which was under ODM. To them, under James Orengo as minister, nothing was done about land in the Coast region. This is why the Mung’aro group sees the formation of a regional party to address issues affecting the Coast as the best way forward. The group states that riding on the backs of other people’s horses or to play second fiddle in regional and national politics won’t help deal with these issues. For Mung’aro and his group, without a strong unifying regional party, the Coast region shall remain politically, economically and socially marginalised.
They make reference to the regional representation in Parliament. The Mung’aro group contends that even though the Coast region has more than 30 elected leaders in both Houses of Parliament, key positions are held by individuals from parties with fewer elected representatives than the Coast region. In this, reference is made in respect to Moses Wetang'ula of Ford-Kenya party as leader of minority in the Senate, and Francis Nyenze of Wiper party as minority leader in the National Assembly. The Mung’aro group sees this is a form of political marginalisation in an arrangement in which the Coast region is persuaded to play second fiddle yet it has the numbers.
The argument here is not about abandoning ODM or joining JAP or any other party. It is about the Coast region forming a political party it can use to enter into an equal coalition partnership with other parties to form government. That coalition partner with the suggested coastal party may be ODM or JAP or any other willing party. Essentially, what the Mung’aro group wants is the Coast region in a coalition partnership in a government that will treat the region’s leaders in a co-principals arrangement, not less.
Put simply, the Joho-fronted group believes that the Coast shall liberate itself from historical injustices if it stuck to the ODM. The Mung’aro-fronted group argues that the way to liberate this region is to join the government through party coalitions.
As the two groups jostle for supremacy in coastal politics, they have to consider at least two factors that have hindered maximum voter participation in this region. One is that if they want numbers — and the Coast region has numbers — the two groups must consider massive voter awareness campaigns among the communities. Voter apathy in this region is manifest, partly because voters have been disillusioned by the leaders they have elected in successive elections or by the governments that have been in power.
The other issue is insecurity and violence which have hampered voter turnout. A good example is what happened in Kilifi county on polling day, 2013. That violence, which even the IEBC never raised a finger to protest against, denied many voters the opportunity to elect leaders of their choice. The fear of that violence is still rife among Kilifi county voters and no one is sure there shall be massive voter turnout in this county in the next 2017, if corrective measures are not put in place.
These twin issues of voter registration and insecurity transcend party politics and party coalitions. The onus is up to Coastal leaders to ensure that 2017 shall make a difference in the way this region has conducted political business. Let the Coast region send a message to whoever wants to hear that it has the tyranny of numbers, and that it can amass those numbers to join a coalition of the willing in the next coalition government.