The Homa Bay county senatorial election has come to an end, and with it the future of ODM politics not only in Luo Nyanza but also in other ODM party-controlled zones, including the Coast region. As expected, the ODM supported candidate won overwhelmingly, thanks to the personal intervention and influence of party leader Raila Odinga in the electoral process.
The challenge confronting Raila and the ODM leadership after the Homa Bay county election is the perennial party dictatorship in nominations for electoral posts. ODM, though branding itself the 'People’s Democratic Party', has opened itself to severe criticisms for its unceasing undemocratic ways of doing business. In addition to Homa Bay, the Coast is another good example where in the 2013 elections, ODM party nominations were earmarked for individuals either known directly to Raila or the party apparatchiks in Nairobi and Mombasa.
Today, some of the individuals elected on ODM ticket in this region are stuck with the leadership positions. Some counties have either failed to fully utilise development funds allocated to them by the National Treasury or they have used much of the money for the wrong reasons — buying furniture, foreign travels and extravagant seminars in posh hotels. Development has taken the back seat.
The Homa Bay by-election holds some lessons for the Coast region which, like Luo Nyanza, is overwhelmingly ODM. The first lesson is that the most Democratic Party in the nation is actually undemocratic when it comes to party nominations for electoral posts. The other lesson is that despite the acclaimed dictatorship, ODM is still the party of choice in the Coast region.
Consider this: Four of the six governors in the Coast region were elected on ODM party ticket. They are Amason Kingi (Kilifi), Hassan Joho (Mombasa) John Mruttu (Taita Taveta) and Salim Mvurya (Kwale). Only Hussein Dado of Tana River and Issa Timamy of Lamu were elected on Wiper and UDF parties, respectively. Similarly, more than 80 per cent of the other county positions – women's representatives, the Senate, the National Assembly and county assembly representatives were won by the ODM. In the Coast region, ODM and Raila lead. Other parties and leaders — including local leaders –follow.
Why Raila is popular in the Coast
Several factors account for Raila’s popularity in the Coast region. One, is that many voters here perceive him as a man of the people. He tells them what they want to hear, he disguises himself as one of their own – walking, talking and behaving like one of the village elders somewhere in Kilifi county. His politics of kitendawili, Swahili parables, enchants the people. He keeps them breaking their ribs in laughter as he addresses them on serious matters affecting their lives. This is Raila in the Coast region.
The ODM party leader may not have done much to raise the standards of living of coastal communities, but his charm and his unwavering support for majimbo — now devolution – touches the hearts and minds of the impoverished and marginalised communities. He is echoing the politics of the former coast leading politician, the late Ronald Ngala. When Raila charges that successive governments in Nairobi have ignored the plight of coastal communities, he has a readily listening ear, even though he himself was Prime Minister and James Orengo his Minister of Lands during the coalition government with Mwai kibaki before the 2013 elections.
We have party stalwarts in the Coast region, who would hardly tolerate any criticisms against Raila or ODM. They see ODM as the saviour to their long painful historical injustices.
The other significant factor fuelling Raila and ODM’s popularity in this region is the absence of a regional unifying party and a leader. The demise of erstwhile leading coast politicians such as Ngala, Sharrif Nassir and Karisa Maitha left an indelible leadership gap in this region. When Maitha died in 2005, Raila cleverly saw an opportunity to penetrate the Coast. With the Orange team defeating the conservative Banana team in the 2005 constitution referendum, Raila instantly became the rising sun in coastal politics. He and his ODM party overwhelmingly won the general elections of 2007 and 2013. In the last elections, for example, more than 80 per cent of the electoral seats went to ODM. While Raila’s political star has been on the rise, the divided, weak and vulnerable coast leadership has been waning under the shadow of Raila.
Can the Coast lead itself?
The rise and rise of Raila and ODM in the Coast region has affected the emergence of a homegrown leadership, capable of playing a unifying role. Local leaders who were elected on ODM ticket have enjoyed the trappings of power trusting that they have reached the Mountain Top. In this belief and trust, they have marginalised the Coast region and its people. Yet the need for our leaders to shun politics of dependence cannot be gainsaid.
Here are examples leaders in the Coast region should follow: The URP party and William Ruto unified the Rift Valley communities to win an election and to rise to national leadership. Similarly, the TNA party and Uhuru Kenyatta unified the Central region to win an election and rise to national leadership. Even in the opposition politics, ODM and Raila have unified Luo Nyanza, as did the Wiper party and Kalonzo Musyoka in Ukambani. Only the Coast region has been left hanging in the air.
Is Jubilee Alliance Party a force in Coast politics?
Can the Jubilee Alliance Party reverse the Raila-ODM political supremacy in the Coast region? The answer is no – not just now. The roots of ODM in this region are too deep to be uprooted by a rebranded alliance in the name of JAP. Not even the recent defections to JAP by Mombasa’s Ramadhan Kajembe and Suleiman Shahbal will work the magic.
The one singular reason why the majority of coastal voters do not vote the Jubilee Alliance Party is the mistrust and suspicion that the party leadership represents the continuation of the historical injustices meted out against the communities here before and after independence. Rightly or wrongly, voters here associate Jubilee party with the past mistakes of the regimes of Presidents Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel Arap Moi and Mwaki Kibaki, which are perceived to have perpetuated politics of impoverishment and marginalisation in this region. This is the neck JAP has to try to break if it is to successfully penetrate and challenge ODM politics in this region. Issues of landlessness, a lack of educational and national government employment opportunities for coastal people have to be addressed. To be sure, ODM has never done anything tangible to resolve these issues but people here simply trust the party and its leaders.
The way forward
The Coast region is badly in need of a unifying leader and a unifying party. The success of the much-touted Jumuiya Ya Kaunti za Pwani shall only be realised through a unified region and a unifying leader and political party. As stated earlier in this article, URP and Ruto unified the Rift Valley and ascended to national leadership, TNA and Uhuru Kenyatta did the same in the Central region, ODM and Raila did it in Luo Nyanza, and Wiper and Kalonzo have done it in Ukambani. With a population of more than three million people, why does the Coast region not have a unifying political party and a leader? Why?