The Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury, Mr Henry Rotich has read the budget estimates for 2013/2014. If it is not your cup of tea, I believe by now, like they say, you should have moved on.
But what are the implications of ‘moving on’ on our economy? That is what I would like to analyse and forewarn readers that Kenya is set for stagnated, if not a drop in, economic growth.
In 2003 as Kenyans were celebrating and singing ‘yote yawezekana bila Moi’ I was happy but checked my expectations of Kibaki. I have never believed in Kibaki’s leadership abilities, even as he goes out to the sunset, I still believe he majored in the minors and failed the major political test. He leaves Kenya more divided that he got in 2003.
Immediately after the National Rainbow Coalition government assumed power, Kenya started recording a steady economic growth. The NAK wing of Narc attributed this to Kibaki’s economic genius.
I beg to differ. This growth was more by default than design. Mark you Kibaki, the economist, has never come up with a scholarly economic blueprint of his own for this country.
The Kenyan people were rated the most optimistic people after the historic 2002 elections, I still believe we are. It is this aura of hope, joy and belief in the country leadership that set the economy on a growth path.
It had little to do with the bureaucrats at the National Treasury.
In fact they just jumped onto the train because it could have crushed them if they attempted to frustrate it.
Happy people are optimistic; their high adrenalin levels enable them to take risks and rush where angels may fear to tread. They spend money with the hope of working hard and earning more tomorrow.
They invest and try out new ideas just for the sake of adventure. Happy people make love a lot. Kenya Bureau of Statistics can ascertain my claim from the 2009 census.
When children are born, that is a market born and parents have to work hard to meet their needs and invest in their future. This kind of environment produces the best in people and everybody strives to give more than they are required to.
Employees went beyond the call of duty and employers improved the terms of employment even if only in working conditions. To some employees, it did not matter, Kenya was our country and patriotism meant we build the nation.
Fast forward and Uhuru is sworn in when half the country is moody and, for lack of a better word, mourning. There were fears before the elections that the West will impose sanctions if Uhuru is elected President.
Let us hold this fact constant and say things will remain as before. Their feeling whether real, imagined, justified or not will affect the economy negatively.
These Kenyans who cannot wait for the next general election happen to be the working class of Kenya. Their counterparts in the middle class are the managers who run the enterprises owned by the elite and higher class of Kenyan society.
The elite who own the instruments of the economy do not run the economy. The donkeys who run the economy at this moment do not feel any more Kenyan than a Somali refugee at Dadaab Refugee Camp.
They are not only workers, who push the wheels of the economy. They also happen to be the market of the goods they work so hard to produce.
They also rent houses owned by the same owners of instruments of economics. Some of these people are celebrating expecting this working class to move on as if nothing happened.
Even without taxation of basic commodities, our economy will at best stagnate. President Uhuru Kenyatta must do his best to win the trust of this lot. It will take time, because to some of them he did not win it “legitimately” and so he will be coming from a point of first justifying his election win. It will take time but it is possible.
My two cents for Uhuru is, to avoid the bane of political class of picking a few people from the ethnic communities that feel short changed and expect the effect to trickle down to the bottom.
He has to engage with leaders beyond politics to win over the people even without necessarily winning over their political leaders. Lastly, Raila Odinga may look like a politician who lost an election just like Musalia Mudavadi or Peter Kenneth.
To the contrary, there are millions of Kenyans who pegged their socio-economic aspirations on the personal ambitions of this one man. This is the complex spaghetti Uhuru Kenyatta will have to unravel bit by bit for political gains but most importantly economic growth of Kenya.
Okwaro Oscar Plato is a lecturer at The Cambridge Institute of Management. The views expressed are solely of the writer.