Azimio leader Raila Odinga has for two and a half decades been predictable in his response to his poll losses; claim massive rigging, call for mass action and force the government to accept changes in the electoral laws and composition. It ended in some form of rapprochement with the government.
But president William Ruto is not keen to reinvent the wheel, instead he has chosen to work with the upcoming and elected leaders, something that has put the Azimio leaders in great quandary.
They have been mulling their next steps to stay relevant. Their earlier plans for mass action met resistance from within as realignment, which saw a number of its allies pledge support for the government, took shape.
The Azimio leadership, especially Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka, have been keen to find a launchpad for their next move. Depicting the IEBC as a rogue body that robbed Azimio of its ‘win’ has therefore been on its card.
Before the election, there had been the common refrain that presidential elections in Kenya are never done but decided by the ‘deep state’, thus the shocker of election loss left the group with no ammunition let alone a sure footing.
Not only has the coalition struggled to stay afloat, but its cohesiveness is a matter of conjecture. While it had been easy to play victimhood when operating from the trenches, the last contest left no room for such manouvre. Instead, it's Azimio that the president claimed were planning the rigging as well as kidnaps.
And to forestall any catastrophic ending to its leaders, Azimio reaction has been predictable. The weird but hollow claims, ratcheted in choreographed pressers and culminating into a Kamukunji parley are straight from the Azimio leader's political playbook.
Many Azimio elected leaders have decided to work closely with the Ruto administration. The softening of stance by Raila that his members could work with the government was just a rude awakening as well as a tactical retreat meant to lay in wait for an opportune time.
The President's State House revelation of a sinister motive on the part of Azimio top rank gave them the spring in their gait and accorded them some fillip to try and rejig their dwindling fortune.
Because the statement had the potential of upending the Azimio leadership, Raila got the perfect excuse to rally the hitherto lackadaisical Jubilee support and the Jeremiah Kioni's statement pointed to a higher sanction.
The whistleblower charade is a continuation of the propaganda the coalition tried to deploy at the Supreme Court during the presidential petition to no avail. In the heat of things, the backlash could be seen in John Githongo's recant of part of his evidence.
The court, in its verdict, didn't have kind words for their mean attempts. The belated ruse will not help salvage the Azimio ship, only introspection and acceptance that there's time for everything will.
Economic and political analyst