There is political unease in Nyanza and many are pointing an accusing finger at the ODM party headquarters. ODM happens to be the dominant party in the region, enjoying near-fanatical support.
Securing the party's ticket is a matter of life and death in the region, with politicians investing heavily to clinch the ticket. In most cases, it is a walk in the path once one has the party ticket, for the people often vote for the party and not the person in the general election.
This time around however, party mandarins have adopted an unpopular method, to selectively issue nomination tickets to 'loyalists', denying the people an opportunity to have a say on who represents them under the party's banner.
If negotiated and all competitors are on board and in agreement, then there is no problem. However, if there is dissent from just one of the many competitors, the most viable option is to go through the nomination process to pick the most popular candidate.
A case in point is that of Homa Bay county, where ODM has given Gladys Wanga a direct ticket when her competitor Evans Kidero wasn't on board and dissented. Why did ODM ignore the plight and feelings of Kidero and his supporters, going ahead to issue a ticket to Wanga?
It is for this same reason that Migori governor aspirant John Pesa decamped from ODM to DAP-K, faulting ODM for its undemocratic process of issuing competitors direct tickets, against the popular will of the people.
Whereas this process is popular and has worked in other democracies, particularly in the developed world, here the participation of the people is the norm and the most popular way to make a choice.
The western world population is more homogeneous and informed than here, where we must take on board issues such as clanism, ethnicity and even gender, which complicate the formula of selectively picking a candidate without hurting the core base.
At the top of the hierarchy, Raila Odinga has failed a number of times to step down for others through consensus yet he is ready to impose an unpopular method on the people. It hurts and the repercussions are huge, including people abstaining to participate in the election.
We know and understand what is cooking at the party headquarters. Other than money changing hands, some crafty heads are managing the post-Odinga transition, due to his advanced age. By blocking others, they are managing the Nyanza succession politics, planting their own loyalists, people who will be of little threat in the Odinga succession battle.
With growing loud murmurs over this unpopular way to pick candidates, ODM may be in for a shocker in the general election. The seed of rebellion has just been planted and with the blowing wind, it is gaining momentum. This time around, the people of Nyanza will vote for individuals, not necessarily the party.
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