The coming general election is going to be a watershed moment in the country’s politics.
There is no doubt that Ruto will be forced to abandon the Daniel Moi political playbook and pick up the Raila Odinga political playbook of yesteryears.
If Ruto had approached his position with humility and strategy, he would by now be poised to take the reins of power, but his uncontrolled ambition and restlessness have led him to his current predicament.
At the start of November last year, many Kenyans were expecting President Kenyatta’s much weakened Jubilee Party to convene a National Delegates Convention at the end of November, in which William Ruto and his Tangatanga brigade would be expelled.
However, President Kenyatta diverted attention to his State of the Nation address and then Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja National Convention at Kasarani on December 10.
President Kenyatta and Raila pulled a fast one by using their parliamentary henchmen to recall Parliament to debate and quickly pass the Political Parties Amendment Bill before the end of the year.
The bill has a critical clause on the timelines for forming pre-election coalitions and coalition parties.
In recent times, Ruto has postured that he will not form coalitions with small ethnic political parties.
Be that as it may, Ruto knows that Uhuru and Raila are using the legislative process to chase him out of Jubilee on their terms and not on his terms as he had earlier envisaged.
If this bill becomes law before the end of January, it will mean that Ruto and his troops must complete their exit with Jubilee, formally enter UDA and form coalitions with whoever they intend to work with.
This demonstrates that William Ruto has been caught flat-footed and forced to play the game according to the script of his enemies and not on his script.
Ideally, the Uhuru-Raila team will be killing two birds with one stone.
Ruto had better put this time and resources to resigning the Deputy Presidency, quitting the Jubilee party with his troops and walking into UDA and completing any coalition deals by January.
Ruto will however not heed this advice, he will want to fight every battle that his enemies invite him to.
It will serve him right to know that wars are lost in choosing to fight the wrong battles – battles that you could easily have avoided and concentrated on the bigger prize, which is always to win the war.
Politics is warfare. The best generals concentrate on strategy.
The writer is an International political strategist focusing on African politics.
Edited by Kiilu Damaris
