Latest research indicates that Kenya's population will start falling after 2050.
Simultaneously the chairman of the Luo Council of Elders, aged 89 years, is planning to marry his fifth wife and has urged Luos to have more babies to gain political power.
Today Kenya has 55 million people and the population is still growing –by 2050 it is expected to hit 85 million. Remember that in 1900 there were just one million people in Kenya. So the population will only start falling when it is already very high.
The number of births per woman is expected to fall to 1.8 by 2050 while 2.1 is the replacement level where population does not decrease.
The Luo Council of Elders should not worry about this possible decline which will only start 30 years from now.
There is a false equation between prosperity and population size. Sweden has 10.5 million people but it accommodates refugees and gives aid to less developed countries whereas in Kenya young people are desperate.
So stabilising the population around 85 million is a good thing. It will make it easier for government to provide better services including top-class education and health care.
Quote of the day: "Show me a hero and I'll write you a tragedy."
F. Scott Fitzgerald
His novel The Great Gatsby was published on April 10, 1925
