Kenya more stable than Uganda today

In Summary

• Ugandan President Museveni has promoted his son Muhoozi to Chief of Defence Forces

• The so-called Muhoozi Project aims to make Gen Muhoozi president in 2026 or 2031

The so-called Muhoozi Project came a step closer to reality last week when President Museveni appointed his son General Muhoozi Kainerugaba as Chief of Defence Forces.

Muhoozi's promotion to CDF gives renewed credibility to the belief that Museveni is grooming his son to take over from him. Previously it was suspected that the Muhoozi Project was a 'false flag' operation to distract attention from Museveni's intention to stay in power indefinitely. Now it appears as though Museveni indeed may hand over the presidency to Muhoozi.

Superficially Uganda has been more stable than Kenya since 1986 when Museveni came to power. Kenya has been riven by maandamano and crime.

But Kenya has strong independent institutions unlike Uganda which has become highly centralised. This was evident in the 2022 election where the 'deep state' wanted Raila Odinga to become president but was overruled by the IEBC and the Supreme Court. 

So, fundamentally, Kenya is more stable than Uganda because the machinery of government is more independent and effective. There may be occasional maandamano but these are superficial disturbances compared to the possible chaos that may ensue during a transfer of power in Uganda.

Quote of the day: "Fate and history conspired to make me what I am today."

The Muslim general became Emir of Egypt on March 26, 1169

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