• Multiple ceasefires have broken down in the Sudan as the army and the RSF continue to battle for power
• Islamic extremists have already taken control of much of the Maghreb
Ceasefires have failed to stick in the Sudan as the rival forces of army leader General Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader General Hamdan Dagalo or Hemedti continue to clash.
This is just a political power-grab. The army is closely linked to the RSF having used it for 20 years to quell insurrection in Darfur. Since the fall of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the RSF and the army have worked closely together to exclude civilian leaders from power. There is no fundamental difference between al-Burhan and Hemedti.
The Sudan faces a complete breakdown of law and order as neither the army or the RSF is strong enough to impose its will on the other.
There is now a risk that al-Qaeda or Islamic extremists will expand to fill this power vacuum. Already they have taken over large chunks of Burkina Faso, Mali, northern Nigeria and other parts of the Maghreb. East Africa already has enough problems with al-Shabaab in Somalia. We cannot afford state collapse in the Sudan.
Kenya, the AU, Igad, and other interested parties must all throw their weight behind international efforts to bring about a lasting ceasefire in the Sudan.
Quote of the day: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
The French Emperor died on Saint Helena on May 5, 1821