Isaac Muhammad, a writer and political analyst based in the United States./HANDOUTMaxwell's insight highlights an important truth: everything rises and falls on leadership. As a student of leadership and global studies, I find this subject of Leadership fascinating.
In today's chaotic and conflict-ridden world, able and effective leadership is essential as leaders play a crucial role in establishing a clear vision, fostering collaboration, uniting individuals and nations towards a shared purpose, a sense of belonging, and achieving success.
Today, the rules-based global system anchored by U.S. leadership is fracturing as authoritarian powers resurge and global alliances shift, leaving the world at a crossroads.
Traditional leadership structures are crumbling, global power is fragmenting, and the era of respect for international law is waning.
Consider the current state of global politics: President Trump's trade war and his "America First" Agenda have isolated the nation and diminished the trust of its friends and allies.
Europe is contending with its own internal politics, and trade war, making it difficult to adopt a unified response to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
China, too, struggles to choose a diplomatic or confrontational approach in its dealings with the U.S. and Europe, all while navigating its support for Iran and Russia and addressing the sensitive issue of Taiwan.
Russia is isolated and trapped in a prolonged conflict with Ukraine. In the Middle East, the ongoing war in Gaza continues with no end in sight as the civilian death toll rises. At the same time, emerging powers like India, Turkey, and Brazil are asserting their influence.
In light of the above challenges, where does Somalia currently stand? What direction is the nation heading as it navigates through complex internal and external matters, along with the uncertainty surrounding its upcoming elections? What allies does the country have?
This article examines the key obstacles and struggles facing Somalia within this complex geopolitical landscape. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud assumed office in May 2022, as the 10th president and the only President ever elected twice to the office.
After his election victory, he vowed to lead a country at peace with itself and with the world. That message was well-received, and while those who knew him showed skepticism, it captured the hearts and minds of the Somali people.
In an open letter titled “Defying the Status Quo of Selecting the Somalia Prime Minister,” I advised the President on the pressing challenges facing the nation and what he needed to do to hold the country together and move it forward. One of my central concerns was his ability to foster trust.
As I wrote then: "One of the main issues facing Somalia is lack of trust—lack of trust in the government and institutions, lack of trust in the army, lack of trust in politicians, lack of trust in clan dynamics, and lack of trust in one another.
I hope, Mr. President, you understand your place in the nation's history and the current opportunity staring you in the face. Therefore, building trust should be your top priority." I also advised the President to heal and unite the nation and select the most capable individuals to assist him in governing, ensuring the country achieves optimal results.
WHERE IS SOMALIA TODAY?
President Mohamud is in the fourth and final year of his mandate. The country is more divided than when he took office, while Somaliland edges closer than ever to international recognition.
Recently, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) stated: “…Somaliland remains committed to forging closer ties with the U.S., and is actively engaged in enhancing military cooperation, counterterrorism efforts, and economy and trade partnerships.
To do so to the greatest effect, and the greatest benefit to American national security interests, it requires the status of a state.
I urge you to grant it that recognition.” Three out of the five federal member states are overdue for their state legislature and presidential elections, and President Mohamud is preventing them from holding their elections while his government is in practical conflict with the other two states that held elections—Puntland and Jubaland.
Al-Shabaab has gained prominence, having captured several key cities.
Meanwhile, resources are being used to incite hostility and have the Somali army fight against each other in Jubaland's Gedo region, all to realize President Mohamud's desire to stay in power.
FOREIGN POLICY
Generally, international relations are shaped by a complex interplay of factors, including national and foreign policy interests, and the influence of international relations. These elements shape how nations interact with each other, impacting diplomacy, trade, security, and global cooperation.
Under President Mohamud, Somalia's foreign relations have been described as unpredictable, damaging trust with key traditional allies like the United States, which is reportedly concerned about inconsistencies in Somalia's foreign policy.
While Somalia required a coherent, interest-driven foreign policy and not tactical improvisation, President Mohamud's government struggled with developing a practical foreign policy that aligns with the country's interests.
Consequently, the nation finds itself at odds with both its immediate neighbors and the wider international partners. Somalia's simultaneous engagement with Egypt, including deploying troops for peacekeeping, while trying to build lasting relations with Ethiopia, illustrates a lack of calibrated diplomacy.
Likewise, Somalia's pursuit of parallel partnerships with the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, along with the United States and China, signals not a deliberate exercise in strategic hedging but rather an incoherent and volatile foreign policy. This inconsistency highlights Somalia's limited grasp of international relations.
These fragmented transactional engagements, devoid of cohesion, not only created uncertainty among partners but also diminished Somalia's diplomatic credibility and eroded the trust of its allies.
In a region characterized by overlapping rivalries and fragile security dynamics, such diplomatic naivety not only limits Somalia's ability to secure reliable allies for protecting its national interests but also heightens its vulnerability to external manipulation and dependency.
EROSION OF TRUST
Actions that lack transparency and integrity erode trust, making effective leadership impossible. When leaders fail to nurture and maintain trust, they alienate allies and supporters, hindering performance, damaging reputation, and threatening success.
Unfortunately, this is the situation in Somalia. Both the Somali public and the international partners seem to have lost the trust in President Mohamud’s administration.
Concerns have risen about the government’s fight against Alshabab, widespread corruption, uncertainty over the Election and constitutional disputes, political polarization, and tensions with Puntland and Jubaland states.
LACK OF FOCUS
When leaders lack focus, they often tend to concentrate on the wrong problem, leading to frustration arising from failing to meet unrealistic expectations. Bill Gates once said, "Only through focus can you do world-class things, no matter how capable you are." Therefore, leaders often don't lack talent; they lack focus." Unfortunately, President Mohamud's government appears to lack both focus and talent, resulting in challenges both internally and externally.
The President and his team have neglected critical issues both at home and abroad, while focusing on less important matters such as public land repossession, procuring military equipment that has yielded no results, and ensuring it holds elections that serve its interests.
Meanwhile, other geopolitical players are working diligently on far-reaching and consequential strategies.
ELECTIONS
In mid-June, the Somali government held what it termed “the first-ever National Consultative Forum.”
The government promoted the forum as a platform to foster national consensus and break the current political deadlock and agree on election model. However, critics argued that the forum was a way for the President to legitimize his political agendas, which seek to impose a centralized and unilateral vision that neglects the principles of the federal system. However, while the forum failed to receive the level of endorsement the Somali government had anticipated, there was still a light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately, that hope died a few days ago when the opposition walked away from the meeting.
Their departure followed repeated attempts to convince President Mohamud to abandon his proposed constitutional amendments and agree on a consensus on the election model.
BUMPY ROAD LIES AHEAD
Senator Ted Cruz's letter recommending Somaliland's recognition to President Trump, a close ally of his, has sparked swift reaction from Somalis both in favor and against the letter. However, unless you somehow missed it, the signs have been evident for some time.
Nations surrounding Somalia are more stable, politically mature, and have established long-lasting foreign relations
. In this context, President Mohamud and his team appear inexperienced, struggling to compete and navigate a complex landscape of foreign policy. This has led President Mohamud to undermine the capabilities and networks of some countries while overestimating the support he can garner from others Somalia stands on the edge of a dangerous precipice.
If the central government continues its current course—pursuing self-serving policies, weaponizing national resources and institutions, suppressing opposition voices, and mishandling foreign relations—the likelihood of formal recognition of Somaliland and a deeper fragmentation of Somalia becomes increasingly likely.
This situation is exacerbated by the fact that several nations not only hope for this outcome but are also actively working toward it. The current administration's indifference to mounting warnings from both the international community and Somali stakeholders is a high-stakes gamble. Ignoring these warning signs risks plunging the nation into further instability, isolation, and loss of sovereignty.
To dismiss these concerns as improbable would be naive. Consider, for example, the fate of Ukraine: President Zelenskyy, believing he could resist Russia with Western support, chose a path that has left his nation devastated.
Today, the destiny of both Ukraine and its leader is being debated not only by the adversary the actor-turned-politician sought to resist, but also by the very powers that encouraged him to confront Russia. This serves as a sobering reminder of how misjudged alliances and uncompromising stances can lead a nation to ruin.
If, as President Mohamud often said, Somalia's unity is sacred, not negotiable, and a cohesive government is vital for its future and its standing in the region, President Mohamud must put an end to the internal conflicts, return to the genuine negotiating table, and acknowledge the undeniable truth: that no one can govern Somalia through force.
As he once said, "If you see a Somali politician seeking assistance from a foreign country to defeat another Somali, know that politician was forced to seek that help by another Somali."
The President should avoid becoming that other Somali who pushes his opposition to seek outside assistance against him!
Isaac Muhammed is a writer and political analyst based in the United States. Reach him at [email protected]
