It has been said of politics that it is, at one level, incredibly complicated; and yet at another level, remarkably simple.
To explain further what I mean by making this reference, let me summarise some of the previous multiparty elections in these terms:
In both the 1992 and 1997 general elections, the key issue was whether the opposition leaders of the time would unite behind a single candidate who could defeat our long-serving authoritarian president, Daniel Moi; or if they would remain divided and lose to him.
The opposition lost in both elections, and Moi extended his rule by a further 10 years.
In 2002, opposition unity had at last become a reality. And it was perfectly obvious for many months before the ballots were cast, that Moi’s chosen successor, Uhuru Kenyatta, had no chance of beating the joint opposition’s candidate Mwai Kibaki. So, the real question was, would Moi willingly relinquish power to a successor whom he had not personally selected?
To the very pleasant surprise of many, both in Kenya and elsewhere, Moi very calmly handed over power to Kibaki and went into retirement.
Not to get too bogged down in history, let me skip the next few general elections (2007, 2013 and 2017) and move straight to the most recent elections in 2022.
The most significant factor in that election was the question of whether Central Kenya’s massive vote bloc would accept the direction of the (now former) President Uhuru Kenyatta, and support Raila Odinga; or if they would opt to place their faith in Dr William Ruto.
And as we now know, although Uhuru remained the acknowledged political kingpin of Central Kenya, the voting masses in general disregarded his preference in this matter and voted mostly for Ruto.
Now the thing to bear in mind here is that these key issues – these central factors, which will determine the electoral outcomes – are always quite obvious well in advance.
But not everybody sees this. Many are so engrossed in the drama of election campaigns, that they do not see the larger picture.
And indeed, Kenyan election campaigns rarely lack for engrossing drama, whether in the huge “mass rallies” or in the specific incidents that take place in different locations and somehow get recorded on smartphone cameras and uploaded to social media.
One such image from the last presidential election was of youths being openly paid what was referred to as “facilitation” or “mobilisation fees” to swell the numbers of these mass rallies.
We saw young Kenyans admitting to first taking money from one side to attend their mass rally; and then promptly going over to the other side to collect even larger sums, to attend that side’s political rally.
Without that background of money changing hands, all you would see is two extremely popular presidential candidates, each being met with large crowds of cheering supporters at every campaign stop they made. Little would you guess that this cheering – and very likely, the subsequent voting – had been paid for.
And this brings us to the heart of the matter as concerns the next general election, scheduled for 2027. It is something I have mentioned before but it bears repeating:
The seminal political event which may yet determine how the votes are cast in that election, is the recent political convulsions of the Gen Z-driven demonstrations.
In retrospect, it was a remarkably effective exercise in political delegitimisation, as it compelled President Ruto to invite opposition leaders into his government in order to reassert his legitimacy. Whereas previously he had been so secure in the presidency, that other ambitious politicians were speculating on who would run in 2032, after Ruto’s second term: the assumption being that Ruto could not lose in the 2027 election.
Right now, it seems likely that we will have a competitive presidential election in 2027. And I would say that the key determinant of the outcome will be this question:
Are young Kenyans still willing to accept bribes – from both sides – in return for their support? Or did the Gen Z volcanic activism change the political psychology of young voters enough to ensure that such expenditure will no longer be a key factor?
