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GACHOKI: Future threats to global tea industry

The future of tea production looks uncertain, requiring continuous interventions and proactive planning.

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by DAVID GACHOKI

Columnists23 May 2024 - 14:08
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In Summary


  • Skilful labour is becoming partly unavailable due to competing urban migration opportunities and ever-increasing demands for higher labour pay
  • Availability of tea growing area will continue to be a challenge with the world's population increasing profoundly

A tea farmer from Thumaita in Kirinyaga county or Kebirigo in Kisii county or Kapkoros in Bomet county, or any other part of the country may not quite understand the happenings at the global tea market stage or its implications on them.

The available communication within the industry on such matters is largely lacking. Sadly, with most public communications turning political, much is taken with a pinch of salt, even on some very weighty issues.

What tea farmers in Kenya need to understand is that Kenya is the third leading producer of tea after China and India, accounting for about 8.3 per cent of global production. China, which predominantly produces green tea, accounts for 49.1 per cent and India, the second largest, accounts for 21.1 per cent.

While about 90 per cent of global production is controlled by only six countries, 94 per cent of global exports is only controlled by 10 countries, with the leading five producers controlling almost 80 per cent, where China controls 20.6 per cent, Kenya 24.8 per cent, India 13.6 per cent, Sri Lanka 12.1 per cent and Vietnam 7.7 per cent.

With the above scenario, it is paramount to review how the global marketplace has been performing in the last 10 years or so. While global exports are a bit well distributed across 193 countries, the leading 20 importing countries gobble up 71 per cent of global tea imports, with the leading 10 countries taking up 55 per cent of all global tea imports. These include Pakistan 13.6 per cent, Russia 7.9 per cent, USA 6.9 per cent, UK 5.7 per cent, Egypt 4.9 per cent, Morocco 4.7 per cent, UAE 2.9 per cent, Iraq 2.9 per cent, Iran 2.4 per cent and Poland 2.4 per cent.

This a shift from the last 10 years where the total tea imported grew marginally by only 0.9 per cent, from 1,725 tonnes to 1,741 tonnes, with the top 20 importers growing their imports by 6.2 per cent, from 1,166 tonnes to 1,238 tonnes. But most interesting are the top 10 importers whose control of global tea imports dropped from 52.8 per cent to 43.7 per cent, a whole 17 per cent drop.

Such shifts in a 10-year period should be a concern to suppliers to such markets. Indeed 73 per cent of all Kenya tea exports go to some of these 10 leading global tea importers. During that time, global tea production grew by 29 per cent, with global exports only growing by a paltry 0.9 per cent.

Tea plays a significant role in these economies in foreign exchange earnings, employment and government revenue. But it now faces sustainability challenges, especially from climate change, labour constraints, vulnerable production systems, increasing costs of production and rapidly changing markets for tea, as well as increasing productivity and remaining competitive.

Climate change is one of the major threats to tea cultivation as it is expected to manifest itself in the increases in mean temperature, altered precipitation patterns, greater frequency of extremes and increased climatic variability.

The tea plant is an evergreen shrub growing under specific climatic conditions and is extremely vulnerable to erratic climatic variability, which may become a significant threat to tea yield and quality. Further, tea has been grown in regions particularly vulnerable to extreme weather conditions.

Labour constraints have become more prevalent as harvesting is highly labour-intensive. Skilful labour is becoming partly unavailable due to competing urban migration opportunities and ever-increasing demands for higher labour pay. Kenya’s is actually the highest in the region, doubling the labour costs of our neighbouring countries.

Availability of tea growing area will continue to be a challenge with the world's population undergoing profound change and predicted to reach 9.8 billion by 2050 along with increasing demand for food by up to 70 per cent, according to a UN report. Growing populations and urbanisation will inevitably put pressure on all available agricultural lands, including tea, competing with others, especially staple food crops.

Ecological balance is another challenge given the monoculture of tea production and its multiple ecological effects on the natural environment. In some tea-growing countries, different agrochemicals are used to protect tea bushes and enhance productivity and quality.

Soil fertility of tea lands is negatively affected owing to monoculture and often grown on slopes, highly vulnerable to erosion. At times forests are transformed to tea plantations, while logging for firewood to process tea has negative ecological effects.

Consequently, the future of tea production looks threatened and uncertain, requiring continuous interventions and proactive planning.

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