Every four years you will find many Kenyans eager to find out who will end up as the two candidates facing off for the US presidential elections. And once the two candidates are identified, then speculation goes into overdrive as to which of them would be “good for Africa”.
Such speculations have already begun for the 2024 US presidential elections. For the US remains unchallenged as the leading global superpower. And from this arises the belief that an American president can just dish out benefits to the poorer nations of the world if he chooses to.
But whereas there can be no doubt about the benefits that can accrue to America’s allies – preferential access to the vast American consumer markets, for example – much of the kind of speculation you may expect to read in this election year, is rooted in a misconception as to how nations relate to each other.
The perspective I believe most accurately sums up the geopolitical reality in this particular instance comes from an analysis I read many years ago, in which the author argued that only two things really matter when it comes to America’s interactions with Africa.
First is that whatever is to be done – whether it be a beneficial trade deal; or the sale of advanced weapon systems; or a generous grant to help fight disease or poverty – has to be believed, however naively, to be in America’s interests.
That “however naively” cannot be overstated. For no leader anywhere, nor yet their advisers, can accurately project what may be in the long-term interests of their country.
Second is that the proposed project or programme must be “domestically acceptable”. Which is another way of saying that there should be no strong objection to this intervention among powerful American interest groups.
With these two points in mind, it is easy to see that – in terms of “what it will mean for Africa” – it really does not matter that much who gets to be the next president of the US.
The most we can say is that the more-or-less certain Democratic Party nominee, President Joe Biden, would continue to be very courteous and agreeable in his dealings with Africa, if he is reelected.
And that the more-or-less assured nominee of the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump, would have some unprovoked, choice insults to hurl in our direction, if he returned to the White House.
But there is a limit to how much good Biden can do us; and likewise, a limit to what harm a Trump presidency might bring in its wake.
Consider for example how during the presidency of this same Donald Trump who some say is “not good for Africa”, the Kenyan president of that time, Uhuru Kenyatta was hosted at the White House.
To quote an AI programme that I just checked with to confirm that my recollection was correct:
“On February 6, 2020, President Trump welcomed President Kenyatta to the White House in Washington, D.C. During this meeting, they discussed the potential for a trade agreement between the United States and the Republic of Kenya. This visit was significant, as it is rare for an African head of state to be received at the White House.”
The same source had this to say about President William Ruto, and his own recent visit to those corridors of supreme power:
“…during President Joe Biden’s presidency, Kenyan President William Ruto had a significant interaction with the White House. President Biden spoke with President Ruto to express gratitude for Kenya’s role as the lead nation in the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, which aims to bring relief to the people of Haiti who have suffered from violence.”
President Ruto was in fact one of several African leaders attending a US-Africa leadership summit. Not quite on par with Uhuru’s solo visit to the White House. But it's early days yet.
So, even someone like Donald Trump, with his unvarnished contempt for all things African, will generally act in America’s interests, when push comes to shove.
And so, Africa has nothing to fear from a second Trump presidency.