It is pretty clear by now that President William Ruto has just two key priorities for the next five years.
First is that he should not end up as the first Kenyan president to fail to win reelection.
Second is that he intends to outperform his predecessor, retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.
These are perfectly valid priorities, and indeed they are what just about every president we have had since the return to multiparty politics has focused on. And gratefully, as concerns that second priority, each of them so far has succeeded.
President Mwai Kibaki (2002-2013) totally outclassed the previously long-serving President Daniel Moi. And President Kenyatta (2013-2022) in my assessment, outperformed President Kibaki—though I am well aware this is a minority view.
So, it is to be hoped that Dr Ruto will take the country forward to even greater heights and achieve more than Uhuru was able to do in matters of delivering the 'development' that all Kenyans yearn for.
But there is a fundamental factor of Kenyan politics – a profound hypocrisy, I would say – which makes this very difficult.
This hypocrisy is that while Kenyans are very loud in expressing their desire for such 'development', when it comes to the casting of votes, this is not what motivates them.
Rather we are stuck in the same rut of 'identity politics' that has been at the core of Kenyan electoral patterns right from Independence. And so, we proclaim 'development' very loudly – and then quietly vote 'tribe'.
'Voting tribe', of course, does not always mean voting for a candidate from one’s own ethnic group. It usually involves voting for the political coalition in which your tribe is a 'stakeholder', so to speak.
The coalition in which your acknowledged regional leaders – if that coalition should emerge victorious in the general election – will be guaranteed a seat at the high table, where, as all Kenyans believe, 'the national cake' is carved up and served selectively to the chosen few.
The implications of this political dichotomy can best be illuminated by comparing Presidents Moi and Kibaki.
Moi was a hardcore Machiavellian to whom the only thing that really mattered was that he should successfully cling to power for as long as he could. And in this he was completely successful, retiring after a 47-year career in politics – during which for 24 years he served as president – and in which time he never once lost an election.
Kibaki on the other hand was wholly absorbed with promoting economic growth. And in this he was remarkably successful, ending the nation’s economic stagnation and engineering remarkable growth in GDP within just five years.
Did the Kenyans who had during the Moi years expressed their deep yearning for 'development' reward Kibaki for this? Not in the least. He barely squeaked back into office – and by many accounts, actually lost that election, only his political lieutenants were able to 'arrange matters' so that he could be sworn in as president. Which he was, but only under particularly humiliating circumstances, and in what then sparked off the epic post-election violence of 2008.
Uhuru largely followed the Kibaki playbook and focused on expanding the foundation for national prosperity, at the expense of entrenching an unshakeable tribal coalition for his chosen successor, the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Uhuru was to see his supporters in Central Kenya desert him in droves during the 2022 presidential election, and largely disregard his signature infrastructure projects.
And so, we find that at this point in his career, Ruto is at a crucial crossroads. He must confront the political hypocrisy of the Kenyan voter and recognise that if he is to be reelected in 2027, this would have nothing to do with any 'development' he may deliver between now and then.
Rather it would all depend on a political calculus centred on building alliances with regional political chiefs and appeasing their supporters.
If our recent political history is anything to go by, Ruto can either give us 'development'; or he can cruise to an easy victory in 2027.
But it will be extremely difficult for him to succeed at both.
