The final results of the recent presidential election were close enough to justify speculation as to where we would be now if the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga had won.
And so, I would like to ask: what would you say are the chances that he would have been able to fulfil what was perhaps his most popular promise – the provision of Sh6,000 a month to families that had fallen on evil days and had no income for either rent or food or medicine?
Such payments, also known as social safety nets – and defined as “non-contributory assistance existing to improve lives of vulnerable families and individuals experiencing poverty” - are to be found in many countries, both rich and poor.
There can be no doubt that such programmes do work and are of immense help to the poor. So, the real question is, “Can Kenya at this point in time afford to initiate any such programme on as wide a scale as Raila’s supporters implicitly believed would be possible under his presidency?”
Well, let us make a few rough calculations: suppose that a million Kenyans were registered under such a programme at any one time. And I specify “at any one time” because the idea here is that those who find jobs cease to qualify; while those who have recently lost their jobs or businesses will promptly register for these benefits. So, it is not the same one million people perpetually receiving the Sh6,000.
Well, 1 million people receiving Sh6,000 every month amounts to Sh6 billion a month. That would come to Sh72 billion every year. Hence Sh360 billion over the five years of the presidency.
Now the perceptive reader will have already realised the significance of that exceptionally large number of Kenyan shillings: at the exchange rates that applied back in 2016 when the project started, that is roughly what Kenya borrowed from China to build the Standard Gauge Railway.
And so, would that money not be better used to substantially repay that huge debt to China, and put an end to all this speculation that China will soon seize the Mombasa port since Kenya is likely to default on that loan due to global events (the Covid-19 pandemic; the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine) which were no fault of ours?
Leadership is mostly about priorities; and this is a fine example of the kind of decision that would have confronted Raila over his promise of Sh6,000 in direct cash transfers for indigent families.
But there is a greater point here: provided the reason for this change in priorities was made clear, Raila’s supporters would have easily forgiven him for failing to promptly fulfil this promise.
And what would have applied to Raila, definitely applies to President William Ruto.
And in Dr Ruto’s case we actually have a number of clear examples of promises made in previous election campaigns that were not kept, but for which his supporters did not hold him accountable.
Perhaps most significant was the 2013 presidential election when he was former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s running mate and the two promised us all that each child would receive a laptop as part of the “digital revolution” that they would usher in.
There was also a promise of world-class stadiums in each region (or was it each county – I now forget).
Neither of these promises were fulfilled – but their supporters (who in the end defied Uhuru to remain as Ruto’s supporters) did not hold this against the two in 2017, nor yet against Ruto in 2022.
All the evidence suggests that although the crowds may cheer themselves hoarse when such lofty promises are made at public rallies, they do not really believe these promises. And as such, will easily forgive the leader who fails to deliver on such promises.
What we should ask of Ruto is that he should do the best he can for the country, under the unfavourable economic circumstances we now find ourselves in.
And this may well mean that he has to break many of the promises he made while campaigning.
