KENDO: Battle of presidential running mates

Vote-baiting strategies were bound to collapse, or fall in place, once the running mates of the two presidential race horses – Raila Odinga and William Ruto – were known.

The battle for the Mt Kenya vote is shaping up in ways the early bird did not anticipate. A community that has seen its sons wield state power for 35 years wasn't going to fall for the carrot. Not even when a preferred outsider has been dangling it for a decade.

Community stake matters. Without a son with a clout to run for president, a daughter who is likely to occupy half-way road to State House promises a compromise pause.

The pundit who said 'tranny of numbers' would influence Kibaki succession was right. This time he said you cannot buy a Kikuyu, you can only rent one. Opinion polls show the rental deal is about to expire.

The ramble, particularly in Kirinyaga, Meru, Kiambu and Murang'a counties of Central Kenya, shows the rental lease is expiring.

Histories of the presidential candidates and their running mates – Raila Odinga with Martha Karua and William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua – are major drivers of the Uhuru Kenyatta Succession.

Those who fear the foursome still maintain the vote is between the former Prime Minister and the Deputy President. It's convenient to overlook the complementarity of presidential running mates.

Karua ticks many boxes across Kenya. Gachagua ticks two, in the eyes of his beholder. He is supposed to be a 'skilled mobiliser'. But this skill is confined to Nyeri, specifically Mathira constituency, where he is a first-term MP.

Gachagua has not gone beyond Central Kenya, Kikuyu diaspora and the North Rift, 40 days after his contested nomination. The confinement suggests the United Democratic Alliance strategy is to consolidate the Mt Kenya and Kalenjin vote, with top-ups from elsewhere. This is the Uhuru-Ruto and Jubilee base that won the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections.

The wins, however, remain controversial, with unresolved claims of vote-padding. The electoral server – smoking gun – has not been opened as the Supreme Court ordered during presidential election petition of 2017.

Gachagua's other checked box was money: the UDA presidential running mate is supposed to have 'deep pockets'. Deep enough to invest in a presidential campaign.

Gachagua made the submission, during one of his verbal misadventures, to a North Rift audience, last month: "We (from Central Kenya) love money. Which is why we have an agreement to elect Ruto because he will help us to make money."   

Gachagua and Karua's histories, and national potentials, or lack of it, are influencers of decision 2022. Gachagua is known for money-making –means notwithstanding. He is also known for divisive mobilisation, including spewing recorded ethnic jaundices.

Cynics say the Mathira MP is a logical complement for his presidential candidate. Their shared 'hustler' ideology and money-making skills are documented.

Karua, the Azimio la Umoja presidential running mate, occupies the other side of the moral plunk. Her energy, and growing national base, dazzle those who doubted her vote-baiting potential.

The former Gichugu MP appeals to Kenyans who respect the rule of law and those who want to see leaders of integrity in public office. She speaks to citizens who desire honest national discourse, crave a corruption-free polity and competence in public office.

Reformers who have always defended human rights have fallen into the Azimio la Umoja column. They see a realistic possibility of a woman, a liberation icon, occupying the second slot in high office.       

Women, and youth, especially the girl-child, see in Karua a role model. She is scaling the heights, entirely on merit. These, to be sure, constitute a large, national constituency.