The demonisation of Deputy President William Ruto and portrayal of him as an existential threat without proof have not only won him sympathy and protest votes, but also equipped him with deadly ammunition.
Unlike his rival Raila Odinga, who seems to have all his cards on the table, Ruto, despite the ‘graft mud’ thrown at him, is coming to the contest armed with a deadly secret weapon: A big silent majority.
Just like top politicians who are scared of openly supporting him for fear of state persecution, there are millions of voters who are afraid of openly declaring their support for the muddied DP.
With shrinking freedom of speech, many of these undercover Ruto supporters prefer to be incognito or fly under the radar to save face and friends.
Most of these closet Ruto supporters are found in what used to be Raila’s strongholds, especially in Central, Kisii Nyanza, Western and Coast.
Raila’s entitlement to some of his traditional voting blocs has gotten into the heads of some of his supporters. So much that others have become arrogant, judgmental and intolerant at the slightest provocation or perceived disloyalty among peers.
Let’s face it, millions of voters in these areas are suffering from Raila fatigue and are itching to vote for Ruto but just won’t openly admit it, lest they face repercussions and ruin friendships or even relationships.
To remain socially desirable and avoid anticipated controversy, these supporters publicly pretend to be anti-Ruto but deep down they have a soft spot for him.
By fighting a seemingly inept and oppressive government that has sidelined him within, the DP is coming off as a ‘man of the people’ after they were abandoned by the opposition and civil society.
To many voters, actions speak louder than words. With his many random acts of kindness in marketplaces to hustlers, especially women and youth groups through fundraisers, Ruto has proved he is more caring than Raila, who comes off as tightfisted, or so it seems.
Throw in the complete domination of the relentless hustler narrative that keeps finding its way into all national conversations and Ruto’s skyrocketing popularity among the masses cannot be gainsaid.
Needless to mention, the DP is a clear frontrunner and way ahead of Raila, who is playing catchup in virtually all vital aspects of the race.
From organising skills, messaging, to sloganeering and creating the bandwagon effect with his regular Karen office meetings of delegations, and eventual parades in a show of might and intimidation.
Kazi ni Kazi, Uchumi Bora, Pesa Mfukoni don’t seem to have matching counter slogans from Raila’s camp. Unlike in previous elections, where he always sold the reform agenda, change, hope and freedom, what is Raila selling this time?
Ruto is appealing to hustlers who are virtually everywhere. But considering some operate in sensitive environments, including in ‘political enemy territories’, it’s politically untenable not to remain a secret Bottom-Up supporter.
In an atmosphere of political correctness and the so-called ‘cancel culture’ (where individuals easily get ostracised from social or professional circles over petty politics), most Ruto supporters are shying away from openly associating with him.
If former Vice President and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka can be forced to shelve his presidential ambition and join a coalition to support what critics call a ‘State project’ against his will, why wouldn’t a mere Ruto supporter not feel pressured to remain silent, at least in public?
Like in a police state, voices of reason have been silenced here. Needless to mention, the opposition is no more, with the President wielding a big stick.
Where is the once vibrant civil society? Most, after their traditional ally Raila got captured and fashioned as a state project, went mute.
Some have reluctantly joined Ruto, who has fashioned himself as a fighter for the common man. Others who have been in the trenches longer have shied away, considering him a stranger to the struggle.
With no entry point in this general election, the latter majority of the civil society has folded their arms and abandoned Kenyans to their own devices.
Due to this tense political dynamic that has seen civil society scared and liberties put under strict control, many Ruto supporters are shying away from publically associating with his candidacy outside trusted groups of like-minded individuals/family or friends.
So secretive are some of these supporters, their spouses or close relatives have no clue about it.
Fact that some of Raila’s diehards arrogantly expect everybody in the traditional strongholds to express utmost loyalty to him doesn’t make it any better.
“Western, Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani are Raila’s bedrooms, and he can get all the votes there without assistance of local kingpins,” some proclaim.
What’s more, Raila has lost a big chunk of his supporters to Ruto due to the handshake with President Uhuru Kenyatta and how he treated his former Nasa Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang'ula and currently Kalonzo.
Yet another big chunk of new Ruto supporters are just angry at the current government and have refused to endorse further mistreatment.
To be seen as going against a combination of the government and a political enigma can land one in trouble.
This, among other factors, has led to what social scientist call ‘social desirability bias’, where most of these secret supporters of Ruto lie to opinion pollsters or masquerade as ‘undecided’ lest their political preference for a demonised candidate lands them in trouble with friends, relatives and associates.
This phenomenon will likely result in shock win for Ruto in Raila strongholds such as Kakamega, Trans Nzoia, Vihiga, Bungoma, Maasailand, Kwale and Kilifi, to name but a few.
The media’s perceived bias for the DP doesn’t make matters any better. They have, without evidence, partly pushed the narrative of how Ruto is an existential threat, with daily headlines that consistently insinuate he is always dealt blows.
Despite feeling Ruto is a breath of fresh air, the scared voters have resorted to keeping it to themselves for fear of being targets of harassment, unfair judgement and discrimination.
But come August 9, just like it happened with leaders who have been his closet supporters and only emerged and joined him recently, these undercover supporters will emerge and necessitate Ruto’s victory.
Consulting editor
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