Sir Bob Geldof once said, “There are those who will stand outside the tent peeing in, there are those who will be inside the tent peeing out - and then there are the others who will stand inside the tent peeing on the ground where they stand. The reason for that is simple. Sometimes, by being momentarily allowed inside the tent, you can stink the place up so much that they want you out - at a reasonable price”
Last week, political parties submitted their list of candidates that will participate in the August election. Before this, the IEBC met with representatives of political parties and agreed to extend the date to select running mates to May 16.
Additionally, Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga appointed a seven-person committee that will assist in the selection of the running mate. One can observe that Raila is openly torn on whom to select as his running mate if he needs a committee to help him select one.
It could also be that Raila has already settled on a running mate and is now hoodwinking Kenyans with this process to seem democratic. Whatever the case, Raila is in a dilemma that will lead to him most likely losing the election.
There are a number of people who have been mentioned as likely running mates. All of them have their own credentials despite their political capital being in question, mostly.
They include former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who held the position in 2013 and 2017 when Raila lost to President Uhuru Kenyatta.
It is clear that there are some quarters within Jubilee that are strongly vouching for Karua. There are also a good number of women supporting Azimio who are also demanding that Karua gets the ticket to be Raila’s running mate.
Kalonzo has made it clear that Raila cannot win the election without him banking on the about 2 million votes in Ukambani. What is unclear is what his next course of action will be if Raila selects someone else.
If Raila selects Karua, it is likely that Kalonzo will be openly defiant, and there may be subsequent fallout in Azimio. It is perceived that Karua would draw in the women's vote as well as the Mt Kenya vote if she is the running mate.
Whether Karua has the political capital to bring in the numbers from those two constituencies is a whole different ball game given that she was a presidential candidate in 2013 but came in a distant sixth.
We have seen some of Kalonzo’s allies, especially those from his strongholds, openly state that they will not support Raila if Kalonzo is not on the ticket. This would heavily dent Raila’s numbers as Ukambani has been a core base for him in the last two elections.
In addition, Kenya has a political history of politicians not honouring MoU’s as Kibaki did with Narc in 2002 and as Raila did with the 2017 Nasa deal that would have seen Kalonzo become the automatic candidate in this election.
If he selects Kalonzo as the running mate, then it will be very difficult to rally Mt Kenya behind the Azimio ticket, and will most likely vote for Ruto. A Raila-Kalonzo ticket would most likely garner the same 44 per cent that has been achieved in previous elections.
It would also be naïve to think that selecting a Mt Kenya running mate for Raila will diminish Ruto’s chances. Azimio should recall that Ruto has been wooing Mt Kenya since 2013 and has made a lot of inroads, especially with Raila being on the opposite side in the last two elections.
I cannot advise Raila on who to select but in my analysis, the ODM leader is faced with a lose-lose situation on the two most preferred running mates. This dilemma may not even go away when he uses the committee he formed last week.
All we can do is wait and see who he selects but this dilemma will not go away easily.
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