MUGA: Why political stability matters

It is impossible to consider the events ongoing in Ethiopia – increasingly being referred to as a 'long drawn-out civil war' – without feeling sorry for the ordinary people of that country.

Here is a nation that not too long ago was regarded as an African success story: with almost double-digit economic growth of just the kind that had famously enabled China to bring over 850 million people out of poverty in just 30 years; the builders of the largest hydropower dam in Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would lead the drive towards industrialisation; etc.

Now all we see is negative news, pertaining to the civil war raging in Ethiopia. And it is a war that seems to be conducted on terms strangely different from all other wars of the past 100 years or so.

For example, in most wars, whenever you have any so-called 'rebel forces' pushing towards the capital city, it usually points to inevitable victory for the rebels, and an end to the war.

Now in Ethiopia we reportedly had Tigrayan rebel troops closing in on the capital city of Addis Ababa.

Oddly enough these troops, which had supposedly routed the Ethiopian military in battle after battle, were not strong enough to take out the Ethiopian government forces that had imposed a blockade on the Tigray region, where 'millions' were said to be in danger of dying for lack of food and medicine.

Then, just last month (December 2021), these troops that were allegedly closing in on Addis Ababa suddenly did a U-turn and retreated “to allow for peace talks”.

Whatever may be the truth in all this, we can only hope that Ethiopian leaders, across the board, will in the end follow the path of negotiation and compromise – if only for the sake of the ordinary people of Ethiopia.

And speaking of those ordinary people of Ethiopia, they have recently received a blow that is as devastating in economic terms as the war has been in terms of deaths and injuries.

Ethiopia has lost its trading privileges with the world’s single largest market, the US, over accusations of human rights violations.

These trading privileges were created by the African Growth and Opportunities Act – AGOA – passed by the US Congress in the year 2000. And although AGOA involves preferential access to the US market for thousands of products, garment manufacturing has long been at its core for three reasons:

First, it is labour intensive (ie, creates plenty of jobs for relatively little investment in machinery). Second, it does not require any advanced education in employees, as more or less anyone can be trained to operate a sewing machine. And finally, it mostly employs women – and women’s economic empowerment is nowadays considered key in the fight against poverty in any developing nation.

Kenya has also taken advantage of AGOA, but nowhere near on the scale that Ethiopia has. Anecdotal data suggests Kenya has created about 50,000 direct jobs and maybe an additional 100,000 indirect jobs. While Ethiopia boasts 200,000 jobs created directly by AGOA, and over a million indirect jobs.

Given Ethiopia’s average family size of five persons, you can see why the loss of AGOA privileges is a big deal for Ethiopia: up to five million men, women and children may face devastating economic consequences due to the sanctions imposed by the US.

Just a year or so ago, analyses of the Ethiopian economy focused on its planned export of cheap power to neighbouring countries once its magnificent dam was complete; the continuing dominance of Ethiopian Airlines over the African skies; its modern new railway system; and other such miracles driving economic growth.

Now it is all disaster piled on disaster.

It is a reminder to us in Kenya, even as we head towards the next presidential election, that if there is one thing we should value more than the sanctity of the one-man-one-vote principle, it is the continuation of the political stability we have known since Independence.

We should remember that all those wonderful political promises now being thrown about with such reckless abandon, presuppose a basic level of political stability within the country.

And that if that stability is threatened, then it may not really matter that much who wins.