Back in 2015 or thereabouts, as the first of the new county governments were settling in, there was a constant flow of good news from the counties in Northern Kenya.
In one case, we were informed of the first-ever caesarean section performed in a certain county hospital [Takaba Subcounty Hospital, Mandera]– and that prior to the inflow of devolved funds permitting the county government to prioritise an upgrade of medical facilities, any woman who needed such an operation to give birth, would simply have died.
In yet another case, we read of some resident of a dusty Northern Kenya county declaring that he had seen tarmac roads many times on his trips to Meru or Nairobi but had never expected the day to come when the local “big town” had a tarmac road – and yet now they had one.
I mention these examples to illustrate the fact that these emblems of economic development – tragically delayed in this marginalised zone – did not come about because Northern Kenya started to elect more competent and far-sighted leaders.
This may well have also been true – I do not know.
But the principal reason the residents of Northern Kenya were at last able to enjoy a higher quality of government services was that there was a new constitution after 2010. And this new constitution created new institutions – the county governments – that proved capable of delivering vastly improved services, even if we allow for the “devolved corruption” which went hand in hand with devolved government.
And herein lies the key to understanding what Kenya really needs, if more of our people are to see even greater improvements in their standards of living.
As has been repeated by Kenyan political pundits “ad nauseum,” what Kenya needs is better and stronger institutions – not necessarily outstanding, once-in-a-generation leaders.
And this point bears repeating at this time, because the presumed frontrunners in the current race for the presidency in the 2022 elections, are both in their differing ways, truly exceptional men.
Deputy President William Ruto has certainly shown a rare capacity for defying the forces of political gravity. He has faced and overcome challenges – corruption accusations, the International Criminal Court, etc – which would long have destroyed the political career of any lesser man.
I started writing opinion columns back in the final years of the late President Daniel Moi’s rule. If anyone had told me then that Ruto would one day – singlehandedly – surpass in influence, the deeply entrenched Moi dynastic networks when it came to determining the political direction of the Rift Valley, I would have laughed out loud.
Yet here we are.
But former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has something that Ruto doesn't – or if he has, then this has yet to be made manifest. This is the ability to create a kind of devoted political following, which is not in the slightest bit diminished by any electoral setbacks.
In the Middle East, the supreme practitioner of this kind of politics was the late Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat.
No matter how many times his efforts to confront the State of Israel, through force of arms, ended in humiliating failure, his people never gave up on him. He continued to be the embodiment of their dream of Palestinian statehood.
In much the same way, Raila seems to have sustained in his supporters – through four defeats in presidential elections – the conviction that he represents their best hope for a better life. And that a Raila presidency would be transformational.
But back to strong institutions: if Raila wins and delivers on his promise to increase devolved funds to about 50 per cent, then this will be a transformational change indeed. It will be national institution-building at its best.
If this happens, then the upcoming election in 2022 may well be the last bitterly-fought Kenyan presidential race. It is the struggle for gubernatorial seats that will then acquire an unprecedented and ferocious intensity.
For most of the things that ordinary Kenyans desire will then be more or less a factor of gubernatorial competence.
And the presidency will be reduced to – largely – a competition for regional prestige, and the fulcrum of education policy, international trade, and security.
