The fifth Covid-19 wave is here. Positivity rates are now estimated at about 24 per cent. It is likely that the new surge is fuelled by the Omicron Covid-19 variant. It is also likely that the Omicron variant has been in circulation, undetected, for more than a couple of weeks.
It is no secret that the country slipped into complacency after President Uhuru Kenyatta lifted the curfew in October. There was a cascade effect; masks nearly fell off our faces, social distancing vaporised and handshakes returned. Somehow, lifting of the curfew was interpreted as a declaration of victory over Covid-19. We were free at last!
But it is Not Yet Uhuru. Not from Covid-19 and its galaxy of vicious variants. It will take a few more weeks before we come to terms with the new surge. Hence, there is no doubt that Christmas travel and associated festivities will energise the spread of Covid-19, and more importantly entrench the dominance of the Omicron variant.
Kenyans should be concerned about what I think could be a wild, energetic spiral of Covid-19 cases over the next coming weeks.
Here is why: Our vaccination rates remain extremely low. Only 6.5 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated, and; we have built our inoculation programmes around vaccines (AstraZeneca) that have now been proven to offer nearly no protection against the Omicron variant.
Moreover, Pfizer or Moderna jabs would have to be bolstered with booster shots to prevent breakthrough infections.
That Omicron can evade the protection of vaccines that are widely used on the African continent, and most of the developing world, is a monumental drawback. The reality of limited efficacy against new variants will only serve to solidify vaccine hesitancy in parts of the world where many are already suspicious about vaccines.
Moreover, that the vaccines used in most of the developed world are based on the mRNA technology, which is more effective against every Covid-19 variant, opens the door for unhelpful conspiracy theories.
Early research findings reported in Australia and the United Kingdom show that Omicron is more adept at evading antibodies than any other variant in circulation. There is evidence to show that AstraZeneca does not prevent Omicron infections six months after one receives a double vaccine dose.
Under these circumstances – waning or limited efficacy of existing vaccines, low vaccination rates, pandemic fatigue and the risk of a solidifying vaccine hesitancy – it is highly likely that we have the confluence of factors to breed more virulent variants.
This presents a veritable risk to global public health because a large majority of Latin America, India and sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccinated individuals received AstraZeneca.
There is a glimmer of hope for countries that have had vicious waves of the Delta variant. A combination of previous infections and some level of vaccination might blunt the severity of the Omicron wave in most of the developing world.
We need a new global vaccine strategy. We must phase out the low efficacy vaccines and increase global supply and access to mRNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna.
The views expressed are the writer’s
