The more things change, the more they stay the same
The process of coming up with political agenda, manifesto, messaging and rallying calls has not changed much since 64 BC. That is when Marcus Tullius Cicero ran for consul, the highest office in the Roman republic equivalent of the presidency in Kenya.
His brother Quintus, aware of the rampant bribery and occasional violence of campaigns in Rome, wrote to offer him unashamedly pragmatic advice on how to manipulate voters to win the election.
This sound familiar in the context of Kenya.
To paraphrase the contents of Quintus’s letter: Presidential candidates in any political regime should be gifted speakers who possess brilliant minds equal to golden tongues of greatest orators—that promise everything to everybody to win election.
However in Kenya, presidential candidates must also have trusted sources or huge reservoirs of financial resources as most young eligible Kenyans would not register as voters, attend rallies or turn out to vote without expecting to be rewarded, bribed, or paid; no matter what you call it.
In addition, Kenyan presidential candidates should have equal to cult backing of vote-rich communities and wealthy people to build a wide base of support. Know the weaknesses of opponents with the intention to exploit them with coated lies.
Flatter voters shamelessly and give people hope, even if they are hopelessly false in demonised patron-clienteles, personalisation of corruption and commercialisation of the state treasury; and limited bureaucracy to develop and execute sound policies to deliver political goods to citizens.
The main conversation here is to understand factors that play a role in setting the presidential candidates’ campaign agenda, and key issues from the lenses of presidential candidates when setting campaign agenda for the 2022 general election.
The presidential aspirants are drifting toward rhetoric that has little bearing on the real issues affecting Kenyans. The key issues in my view should be character of leadership, constitutionalism, lack of courage to make corruption expensive, youth unemployment, poor work culture and unsound macro-economic policies.
Thus voters should turn the 2022 general election into a referendum of yes or no to a bandit economy and enhanced delivery of political goods in a devolved system of government.
The campaign agenda has always been set by presidential candidates. In 1962-65, it was attaining independence, creating a work culture and moral values. In 1980-2002, it was continuity of phase one—managing the local political economy and aligning it to international energy crisis and navigating authoritarianism, state capitalism and one-party rule.
In 2002-2013 it was revival and reconstruction of the dilapidated economy, particularly infrastructure, and constitutional change. The 2013-2022 agenda was informed by the ICC cases following the 2007-08 post-election violence and fear of losing reelection, leading to initiating of populist projects.
For key issues that inform campaign agenda, I paraphrase Bruce Berman’s statement that, Africa politics is materialistic, opportunistic, and that political parties’ ideology, principles and policy have been relatively unimportant. Therefore patron-client politics and patronage are the bedrock of political reality in Kenya and must be confronted with sound policies.
I do not expect presidential candidates in the 2022 election to behave differently. Unless serious civic education is undertaken by multi-sectorial groups and faith-based organisations to help voters to vote wisely.
I consider it a smokescreen for presidential hopefuls to promise vulnerable Kenyans, namely the very poor, unemployed youth, women and physically challenged, take-off funds to improve lives without clear policies and voter mindset transformation. It is a mirage.
Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr’s quote “The more things change, the more they stay the same” sums up Kenya’s context. The huge change in the political arena in 2022 will not represent real change. The political status quo in Kenya will remain unchanged.
