The enthusiastic crowds that meet Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga all over Central Kenya as they campaign with an eye to the 2022 presidential election, are not something many of us would have foreseen about 10 years ago.
For both men had at various times been heavily demonised by the leaders of that region.
One lesson we can learn from the ongoing troubles in Ethiopia, is that it is something to be grateful for, this fact that in Kenya a leader seeking the presidency can travel freely to – and be well received in – a part of the country where he was previously demonised as an enemy of the indigenous community.
The equivalent in Ethiopia would be for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali to be seen sometime in 2031 traveling to the Tigray region to seek the support of the local voters and receiving a warm welcome.
Somehow, I do not think that will ever happen, much as those of us who wish the Ethiopians well, would hope that this may one day be possible.
For many years now, international observers have often drawn parallels between Kenya and Ethiopia and labelled both countries as beacons of hope amidst the general gloom in a region that contains the political uncertainties of Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Burundi and (stretching it a bit) DR Congo.
For example, Kenya and Ethiopia have both invested heavily in public infrastructure, as a foundation for economic growth and job creation.
Then each country has a successful airline, serving a huge part of the continent, and making their base airport (Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa for Ethiopian Airlines; JKIA in Nairobi for Kenya Airways) a continental transport and logistics hub.
And speaking of hubs, both Addis Ababa (which has the African Union headquarters) and Nairobi (which has the United Nations Office at Nairobi) are major diplomatic hubs. So in all respects, Ethiopia was long viewed as a steadily prospering and stable country, and hence a prime investment destination, just like Kenya.
Yet here we are. While in Kenya the major political figures are peacefully seeking votes in areas formerly seen as irreversibly hostile to their presidential ambitions, in Addis Ababa, Abiy, is apparently preparing to repel the mostly-Tigrayan rebel army that is marching towards his capital.
How do you explain this? My theory is that each country is to a large degree a product of its history.
Ethiopia may have seen two consecutive changes in top leadership occur peacefully – from PM Meles Zenawi to PM Hailemariam Desalegn in 2012: and from Hailemariam Desalegn to Abiy Ahmed in 2018. But the tragic history of this nation had previously been one of violent overthrows of authoritarian regimes.
The Emperor Haile Selassie was deposed by a military junta in 1974, and the top leadership of that junta was itself toppled in 1991 by an alliance of regional militias led by the Tigrayans.
I suppose the reason the Tigrayan forces currently leading the reported march towards Addis Ababa declare their intentions with such confidence, is that this is something that has been successfully done before.
But this is not 1991, and it seems to me that even if the Tigrayans and their allies in the end march victoriously into Addis Ababa, it will only mark the commencement of a new and even more vicious phase of the fighting.
In Kenya, on the other hand, although we have had a few clumsy coup attempts, as well as election-related massacres, there has never been a change of government achieved through force of arms. Our national history is one of peaceful transitions, sometimes only made possible by agonising compromises.
We can only hope that the Ethiopian leaders will prove capable of such painful compromises too. Otherwise, we may see yet another parallel evolve, between Ethiopia and Kenya: if things continue on the same deadly path as at present, some Ethiopian leaders may yet find that they one day have to make a trip to The Hague, to sit in the dock at the International Criminal Court, and to answer to charges of crimes against humanity.
