Last week President Kenyatta declared drought a national disaster.
As early as June 2021, the National Drought Management Authority warned of worsening food security in 12 counties. More than 2 million people are experiencing food and nutrition insecurity. Most of the vulnerable are the elderly, the sick, mothers and children.
The forecast on forage conditions revealed that pasture and browse conditions are below average. The combination of poor range conditions, lack of water and livestock diseases and death will have devastating and long-term consequences for small-scale herders and their families.
Livestock keeping accounts for about 90 per cent of employment and household income in the counties of Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Makueni, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui, Isiolo and Laikipia.
While the details of specific mitigation measures have not been made public, the government will coordinate the distribution of water, relief food and livestock buyouts. That there is no comprehensive response plan nearly three months after the NDMA bulletin warned that 12 counties were in a drought phase is disappointing.
The glacial pace of response is even more disappointing given that drought is not a novel or freak phenomenon. In fact, drought cycles have reduced in the recent past from intervals of five-10 years to two-four years. Former President Mwai Kibaki declared drought a national disaster a record four times in 10 years. In 2017 President Kenyatta declared drought a national disaster.
The sixth Assessment Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in August warns of more extreme droughts, flooding, heatwaves and a key temperature limit being breached in just over a decade.
A warming planet will inevitably lead to drought, floods and other extreme weather outcomes. Climate shocks lead to crop failure, water shortages and a deterioration in pasture conditions. But climate shocks need not touch on a humanitarian crisis. Hence, famine is not an ordained outcome of a drought.
The transition from drought-related scarcities such as crop failure, poor range conditions and lack of water are inextricably linked to governance incapacity and coordination failure. Such incapacity and failure, in our context, are exacerbated by multiple levels of authority and diffuse accountability, which obfuscates responsibility among sclerotic government agencies.
It is hardly surprising that we are still not prepared for a full-throated response to the current drought even though early warning was available for over a year. It is disheartening that early warning seldom leads to early action or intervention.
Extreme climate events are here to stay. And yes, extreme events will be more frequent and more ferocious. Repeated climate-related disasters or shocks tend to undermine ecological, social and physical, human, financial and even institutional capital.
Long-term strategies to respond to climate shocks should focus on building resilience and pathways to alternative livelihoods at the household and community level. A critical part of this is asset protection to enable swift recovery.
Early warning must lead to early action in building resilience, not a scramble for knee-jerk relief support.
Views expressed are the writer’s
