An estimated 4.2 per cent of Kenya’s population has received at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose. Only 1.7 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated.
Vaccination rates in Kenya are lower than 2.5 per cent, which is the estimated proportion of fully vaccinated population on the African continent. In comparison, vaccination rates stand at over 50 per cent in Europe and North America and, 25 per cent in Asia, South America and the Caribbean.
African countries with the lowest population coverage of Covid-19 vaccine doses administered – less than 0.2 per cent – are DR Congo, Chad, Burkina Faso, South Sudan and Tanzania. In contrast, more than 25 per cent of the population in Seychelles, Mauritius, Morocco, Tunisia and Cape Verde are fully vaccinated.
Globally the path to herd immunity – 60-70 per cent vaccination rate – will be long and hard. But it will be improbable for most African countries. If vaccination rates lag in major regions, the virus will continue to spread and mutate, generating new and virulent variants, which might evade the protection conferred by vaccines hence making the entire world vulnerable to Covid-19.
Moreover, deplorable vaccine access in Africa, vaccine hesitancy and the delayed rollout of vaccines for children further complicate the path to herd immunity. The thinking among data and science communities is moving beyond any illusions of herd immunity. Australia has jettisoned the fantastic idea of “Covid zero”.
Herd immunity is only possible if the vaccine administered is transmission-blocking. Not one vaccine authorised today is capable of blocking SARS-Cov-2 transmission. Breakthrough infections are real. Vaccinated individuals can become infected and infect others. This complicates enormously, the path to herd immunity.
Furthermore, concerns over waning immune response among the vaccinated and novel variants have persuaded wealthy countries to contemplate booster shots. Germany and Israel have announced plans for booster-shot programmes, and a growing list of countries, including the United Arab Emirates, China and Russia, have already started administering extra doses.
Nearly two years into the pandemic lockdowns and punitive measures to limit international travel do not constitute evidence-free bureaucratic measures to contain the SARS-Cov-2 virus. It is no longer a path to herd immunity but a path to normality, living with the virus. Governments and business must get out of the fortress or cave mentality. We cannot hide or lockdown our way out of this deadly pandemic.
There will be no herd immunity threshold and Covid-19 will never perish from the face of the earth.
In the long-term, Covid-19 will become an endemic disease in the same way as influenza. Months and even years from now we will still be battling with threats from new variants and staggering from future surges. And the Mu variant is certainly not the last on the list of variants of interest. Get used to it.
The bottom line is that nothing works better than existing vaccines. All Covid-19 vaccines are protective of serious illness and death. A combination of vaccines and sensible public health measures like handwashing, social distancing and mask-wearing, will allow people to live with Covid-19.
Views expressed are the writer’s
