Do Kenyans need rural transformation or a bottom-up economy? Even though Raila Odinga’s rural transformation model has not received much criticism, Deputy President William Ruto’s bottom-up economic model has elicited an interesting and controversial debate.
It is apparent that many Kenyans, including leaders, do not understand the meaning of the bottom-up economic model.
According to Ruto, the bottom-up model is aimed at empowering ordinary Kenyans finically to enhance entrepreneurship and economic development. Specifically, on his Twitter account, Ruto explained that “The bottom-up economic framework is anchored on a program that promotes investments and financial instruments that target millions who are unemployed, hustler enterprises, farmer groups, and fishermen.”
Raila, on the other hand, mainly wants to transform rural areas through infrastructural development, including investing in education, health, and agriculture to make villages more livable. The main question is, which of the models is more suitable for Kenyans?
Raila’s economic blueprint is focusing on an area that is likely to change the Kenyan economic status significantly if effectively and efficiently implemented. According to the 2019 Census report, 14 million of 19.5 million of Kenyans who live in abject poverty are found in rural areas.
GeoPoll 2020 estimated that 86 per cent of Kenyans are worried about sleeping hungry. Therefore, transforming rural areas will not only reduce poverty but also enhance food security, leading to sustainable economic growth and development. Also, by creating rich villages, people in urban areas will grow richer due to the economic ripple effects.
Equally, Ruto’s bottom-up model will create a prosperous Kenya, particularly with regard to entrepreneurship or trade. Lack of capital is the main reason why many noble and transformative business ideas end up being just dreams or wishful thoughts. Making business capital available to ordinary Kenyans or hustlers will not only improve entrepreneurship but also create jobs, resulting in economic growth and development.
The KNBS estimates that 15.87 million Kenyans were unemployed as of April 2020. About 1 million youth graduate from local institutions annually, expecting to be employed. Therefore, Ruto’s model will promote business while creating employment opportunities. Importantly, by promoting trade, the bottom-up model will create and sustain entrepreneurs, create jobs and drive innovations.
Critics of the bottom-up model have questioned where Ruto’s administration will get the money to give millions of unemployed young small-scale traders to promote business. Senator Sakaja, for instance, recently argued that bottom-up is not realistic. Musalia Mudavadi has termed the model “too academic”.
These criticisms come because Ruto’s camp has failed in messaging regarding the meaning of bottom-up and how it will be implemented. The model seems to have been crafted by academicians like David Ndii, making it hard for politicians to understand and explain it. Ruto’s camp, therefore, must make Kenyans understand the model.
Raila’s rural transformation model should not only focus on agriculture but also on other economic sectors to create a diversified rural economy. According to Raila, the model will reduce rural-urban migration.
This is only possible if the model is designed in such a way that it reduces overreliance on agriculture by creating enabling environment for trade. Rural transformation is only effective and sustainable when it encourages the growth of industries and other services.
The integration of Raila’s rural transformation and Ruto’s bottom-up model can significantly transform the economy. Kenya needs to refocus its economic priority from roads and railways to agriculture and promoting entrepreneurship.
Food security is important because people cannot invest on an empty stomach. My economic development lecturer once told us that “people who are hungry don’t invest because food comes first before everything.”
The 2022 politics is mainly based on the economy. However, with regard to the history of campaign pledges, Kenyans should not only focus on the economic models being championed by politicians but also on who is likely to implement their economic blueprint.
Socioeconomist and freelance writer
