Burying Nasa to nurse OKA is a sign of political indiscipline that precedes elections.
Evidence does not count when the bug of ambition bites wannabe presidents. Vested interests dominate every card they play.
Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka wants seniority to determine the choice of One Kenya Alliance presidential candidate.
Wiper has decided its leader won't deputise anyone in the 2022 presidential election. At least not in OKA, where Wiper is the dominant partner.
Amani National Congress leader Mudavadi prefers a scientific way of choosing OKA flagbearer.
Not much is being said of the science or seniority. But the tussle for the trophy is a duel between former vice-presidents Kalonzo and Mudavadi.
Kalonzo was President Kibaki's deputy between 2008 and 2013. Mudavadi was Moi's number two for three months in 2002. Kalonzo was VP for five years.
The two got into the position in similar situations: Powerful Kanu politicians deserted the ruling party after Moi picked Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred successor.
Moi lured Mudavadi back to replace George Saitoti, who had resigned as VP.
Moi was baiting the Luhya vote bloc. Vested interests and Moi succession intrigues found a soft landing through Mudavadi, who was then MP for Sabatia. The bait failed when Moi's preferred presidential candidate lost.
Mudavadi, who would have been VP had Uhuru won, also lost the Sabatia parliamentary seat to preacher Moses Akaranga.
Kalonzo got the position through a shortcut he had predicted months before the 2007 presidential election. Kibaki needed to bolster diminished PNU numbers in Parliament to isolate ODM.
PNU, Kibaki's Deep State and the Electoral Commission of Kenya, under Samuel Kivuitu, muddled the presidential election to give Kibaki a contested win.
Kibaki's craving for a second term, and Kalonzo's yearning for a seat near power, earned the then Mwingi North MP vice presidential perch. He had squeezed himself between ODM leader Raila Odinga and Kibaki.
Before Nasa was retired into the annals of history, Raila preferred delegates or direct vote to decide who carries the coalition's presidential flag.
Nasa parties – ODM, Wiper, ANC, and Ford Kenya – would assemble their delegates to decide the coalition's presidential candidate.
Party leaders Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula wanted 'equality' of partnership to apply, irrespective of party strength.
Alternatively, members of the parties would pick the flagbearer.
This possibility is gone, but the tussle for opposition presidential candidate continues; seniority, national acceptability, parliamentary strength of parties, and science notwithstanding.
Wiper has 27 members, largely from Kambaland, in the National Assembly and Senate. ANC has 17, mainly from Luhyaland. Ford-K has 14 seats, mostly from Bungoma county. Mudavadi and Wetang'ula share the Luhya base.
Their dominant former partner, ODM, has more members than the combined strength of Wiper, ANC, and Ford Kenya in the National Assembly. The numbers have a wider national spread.
Kalonzo's Wiper allies fault Mudavadi's claim that the ANC leader has wider 'national acceptance'.
Mudavadi got 483,981 votes in 2013, when he ran for president. Kalonzo got 879,903 votes in 2007, when he ran for president.
Mudavadi's supporters want Kalonzo to return a favour: They say Mudavadi allowed Kalonzo to be Raila's running mate in 2017. They want Kalonzo to be Mudavadi's running mate in 2022.
People who put pressure on wannabe presidents to run are not ordinary voters.
The pushers are politicians who know their survival depends on misleading their party leaders to run for president, even when the probability of winning is minimal.
Kalonzo and Mudavadi are, experientially, political twins. They know what losing elections means. They know the pain of rigged elections. They need a tie-breaker or they shall hang separately.
