WAIKENDA: Why smaller parties will carry the day in Mt Kenya

Once when a lion was asleep a little mouse began running up and down upon him waking him up. The lion grabbed the mouse and as he was about to put him in the mouth, the little animal begged for forgiveness promising to return the favour one day.

The lion was so tickled at the idea of the mouse being able to help him, that he lifted up his paw and let him go. Later, the lion was caught in a trap, and the hunters who desired to carry him alive to the King, tied him to a tree while they went in search of a wagon.

The little mouse appeared and went up to the lion and soon gnawed away the ropes that bound the King of the Beasts. "Was I not right?" said the little mouse.

In 2016, small parties, mostly from the Mt Kenya region, folded up and came together to form the Jubilee Party. Many thought that this was their end.

But with the death of Jubilee in Mt Kenya, aspirants and voters will be looking for the next political vehicle that they can use to express their political intentions.

It seems unlikely that the President will launch a new political vehicle, with the main option being a pre-coalition agreement between ODM and Jubilee.

With the formation of this mega party, Mt Kenya voters may opt to look for, and support their own candidates in smaller parties.

In fact, in 2022 it will be more prudent for one to run for office as an independent than join an unpopular party.

Jubilee, as I have written here before, has grown unpopular in the Mt Kenya region and may not be a viable option for candidates, including presidential candidates seeking to form coalitions.

Additionally, the 2017 Jubilee nominations where popular candidates were rigged out in favour of less popular ones, still leaves a sour taste in many aspirants' mouths, with many fearing being rigged out in big parties.

Therefore, smaller parties will carry the day in Mt Kenya, and pre-coalition agreements with these parties will be the only way to dominate Mt Kenya.

In the last two elections, Mt Kenya had a unifying factor in President Uhuru Kenyatta, which saw TNA in 2013 and Jubilee in 2017 be the major political parties in the region.

Towards 2022, without a leading presidential candidate, we are back where the region was in 1992 where a number of parties were in the running and shared the spoils at the ballot.

At the time, there were two strong presidential contenders – Mwai Kibaki and Kenneth Matiba – who failed to beat Kanu but their parties got a substantial number of parliamentary seats.

Since then there have been numerous parties in the region, some of which have won elective seats mostly at the ward level.

Despite TNA and Jubilee having been the dominant parties in 2013 and 2017, other parties such as GNU, Narc Kenya, APK and ANC got votes or won seats in the region.

In fact, in 2013 Nderitu Gachagua was elected Nyeri governor on the GNU ticket while Peter Munya became Meru governor on the APK ticket, despite TNA dominance in Mt Kenya.

We have also seen small parties cement their space in the Mt Kenya region in the few by-elections that have taken place since the 2017 elections.

A party such as PEP beat Jubilee in several by-elections, including in the Juja, while the newest entrant UDA has also been making its own mark in Mt Kenya.

This phenomenon is expected to continue into the 2022 election where not a single party can be dominant.

Those seeking elective seats in the region will therefore have to align with the parties that will line up as this may be the first time in a long time that Mt Kenya votes will be scattered all over.

For those who are going for the presidency, it will only be possible to get maximum votes from the region by forming coalitions with the small parties and use them to sell their ideologies.