Vested interests are exploiting victims of unmodulated presidential ambition to drive the electorate into another cycle of ethnic voting. Parliamentary by-elections are the trending baits. These by-elections continue to give the kingpins the illusion of ethnic clout.
Ambitions are being exploited to pet ethnic kingpins. One Kenya Alliance hosts three refurbished regional kingpins. The fourth anchor of the alliance, Senator Gideon Moi, is also nursing pressing presidential ambition. Money and a family name give him bargaining leverage for the alliance's presidential ticket.
Deputy President William Ruto is right: the next president won't be appointed from among the favourites, who are being fattened for betrayal. There will be one elected president. The one Head of State will not be selected from among endorsement-seekers.
The appointment will not happen no matter how docilely the ambitious respond to the baits. And, they are swallowing the baits hook, line and sinker. The divide-and-rule is a conventional design of the power cabal.
Parliamentary by-elections in the western region and senatorial contest in Machakos county were platforms for politics of ethnic chess-boarding. The Bonchari MP by-election is the next venue for dangling the presidential carrot for the Abagusii.
Senator Moses Wetang'ula became the Bukusu kingpin during the Kabuchai parliamentary by-election. If you opposed Ford Kenya's Majimbo Kalasinga, then you were opposing the Bukusu kingpin. If you opposed the star of the fiefdom, then you were dimming the possibility of a Bukusu presidency.
One Kenya Alliance anchors supported the Ford-K candidate, whose win was framed as a boost for Wetang'ula's presidential ambition. When Majimbo won, Wetang'ula on. What next, and who will it be, is the anxiety that binds the alliance.
Matungu by-election was a do-or-die for the Amani National Congress. Party leader and presidential aspirant Musalia Mudavadi was the totem pole around which everyone orbited.
Opposing the ANC candidate, Oscar Nabulindo, in the by-election was framed as rejection of a Mudavadi presidency. The plot worked out fine, with propping from vested interests.
The plot by a top Kanu executive – a former Nairobi City County powerbroker – to induce defection of ODM candidate David Were, a former Mutungu MP, fitted the scheme to ensure the ANC candidate won. The Were defection failed, but the plot worked, thereby strengthening the former VP's regional stake.
The same plot worked in the Machakos senatorial by-election. It was the Wiper Democratic Movement candidate who won. The win reaffirmed Kalonzo Musyoka's Akamba kingpinship.
Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua pulled out the Maendeleo Chap Chap party candidate to give way for a Wiper, and a Kalonzo, win. Senator Kavindu Muthama's win was a Kalonzo shine.
The coming parliamentary by-election in Bonchari is another bait, rich with similar vibes. The by-election is a test for Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i: Will he deliver a politically correct winner? Vested interests will make him the totem pole of the decision on the by-election among the Abagusii.
Vested interests are propping up regional kingpins to trap gullible voters. They are anxiously asking who will bag the support of the power cabal. The victims are swallowing the bait. They have not figured out the trick from previous betrayals, or restlessness in the Handshake.
The Handshake was sold as a possible panacea for cynical post-election violence. But these pre-election conflicts, for example, between the President and the Deputy President, could be a rehearsal for post-election uncertainty.
The reported involvement of the system in the muddle is an ominous sign of possible turbulence ahead if presidential succession and election are mishandled. The plot is likely to create an angry lot of ambitious politicians. Their presidential hopes will have been dimmed one more time.
The President, however, cannot handle more angry and hungry politicians, who are craving endorsement. He cannot play Raila Odinga, William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Gideon Moi, and hope to be the master chess player.
President Daniel arap Moi could entertain a presidential 'project', which Uhuru was in 2002. But the backlash haunted Old Moi for decades. His blue-eyed blood son, Gideon, lost the power plot to his adopted son Ruto.
President Uhuru Kenyatta should be cautious in trying to influence his succession. If the power cabal is operating without his consent, then he better call them to order. He should not promise what he cannot deliver. He should not bait what he cannot bite.
