Gideon vs Ruto: Who will carry the day?

I can already see the shape of Rift Valley politics. The frosty relationship between Deputy President William Ruto and his nemesis Baringo Senator Gideon Moi is not about to thaw. In fact, as we head towards 2022, the gap will be too wide for comfort.

Until 2017, Ruto and Gideon’s bad relationship was due to the former disrespecting the latter’s father, retired President Moi and refusing to recognise him as the senior-most Kalenjin elder.

Unlike the DP who does not hesitate to call a spade a spade, Gideon is not coarse in his approach to politics. But don’t be mistaken, his message is clear when he sends veiled attacks towards the DP. Their differences shot to new levels last year when ODM leader Raila Odinga shook hands with his then political opponent President Uhuru Kenyatta. The Building Bridges Initiative escalated the bad blood between the two.

Gideon is slowly but surely building a formidable political network. He has been reaching out to influential political players. Rift Valley is now deeply divided between followers of the DP and those of the Senator.

Last month, Gideon held a meeting with his allies at his father’s home in Kabarak, Nakuru county. This was just one of a string of meetings he has held pulling together seasoned politicians such as former Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto, former MPs Zakayo Cheruiyot, Paul Sang’, Musa Sirma and Franklin Bett.

Gideon was accompanied by Rutto during his recent controversial coronation as a Sabaot elder. The same politicians who accompany Raila during his tours in the region are drawn from the pool of Gideon’s allies. 

The opposition leader, now running sections of the government, is a Gideon ally. He is one of the reasons the DP and the senator never talk.

Before the handshake, the ODM leader could not set foot in Rift Valley thanks to his sour relationship with Ruto but things are thawing. Agwambo is making inroads into the region, meeting with politicians and elders, which is reminiscent of the countdown to the 2007 bloody elections when he was fondly referred to as arap Mibei (son of the lake). That was before he fell out with Ruto who was  his running mate.

To demonstrate how the duo’s relationship is damaged, Gideon gave a wide berth to a peace meeting led by the DP in Kerio Valley on the borders of Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot and Baringo counties. 

As Gideon consolidates his camp, the DP is not ceding ground even as his more than 20 allies at the Coast skipped his five-day tour of the region. But why?

The DP’s allies are largely young sitting MPs ever ready to hit hard at those frustrating his 2022 dreams. You know what I mean if you have listened to Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi.

The ceremony at Kapsokwony was important as it was symbolic of Gideon’s future political dreams.

Political careers are made here. It was in Kapsokwony where Mzee Moi was anointed in 2002 and President Uhuru in 2013. This anointing is made only once and on one leader at a time. This means that no other Kalenjin elder will be anointed here until post-2022 hence the noise made after Gideon’s anointing.

The crowning gives Gideon a crystal clear political direction. Until March 9, 2018, Ruto had no shred of doubt in his mind that he would be the next head of state and the sixth President. The dream is still legal or is it?