HANSEN: Is Somalia ready for the East African Community?

Eleven years since Somalia first launched its application for a membership in the East African Community, the accension process have increased in speed. The EAC launched a verification mission early in 2023, assessing Somalia’s readiness for membership in the Community.

By August 2023 secretary general of the East African Community, Peter Mathuki, announced that Somalia is scheduled to become a member before the end of the year, and in September the negotiation report was filed to the next heads of state meeting in late November 2023.

The process had been strongly promoted as a prestige project by the president of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who was a part of the initial attempts to launch a bid for a membership early in his first presidential period (September 16 2012 – February 16 2017)

The president is now negotiating with a ‘new’ EAC. The EAC has drastically expanded over the last decade. Although, the current East African Community is based on a treaty that entered into force on July 7, 2000, it is a continuation of the history of somewhat rocky partnership between Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, that originated in a period when the tree countries were under British control.

Yet, in the two last decades the geographical and economic scope of the community has expanded drastically. First, Rwanda and Burundi joined in 2007. In 2010 a common marked was agreed upon in principle, although the common market is not fully implemented yet. Most importantly, over the last decade the community also choose to included other, less stable states, with South Sudan joining in 2016 and Congo becoming the last full member on July 11 last year. 

The community now has an estimated 283.7 million citizens, a land area of 4.8 million square kilometres as well as a combined Gross Domestic Product of US$ 305.3 billion. The Community would thus have been amongst the top ten states in the world counted by both population size and the size of the territories.

There is political tensions between some of the member states, as for example between Rwanda and Congo, and Congo is still a country in civil war. South Sudan remains unstable. However, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Kenya are stable and have seen impressive economic growth over the last years. The EAC had an average growth of impressive 7.5 per cent for the last decade before the onset of Covid-19, and is still doing well.

What is at Stake for Somalia?

For Somalia, an entry into the EAC serves as a confirmation of the progress the country has made over the last decade and an entry into a club of more stable states in Africa. The expansion of the EAC has also made the entry easier for Somalia, since the EAC now, because of its new members, is far more than an alliance of former British colonies that it used to be. For Somalia, a membership in the EAC also might function as an antidote to the ‘Arabisation’ of Somalia.

In the past countries at Qatar and the Emirates have taken up a stronger role in Somali politics, the financial sector and even the humanitarian sector, and Arabic culture have increased its influence over the last 50 years. Several of the Somali leaders , even presidential advisers, have argued for a more balanced approach, bringing ‘Africa’ back in.

Somalis also increasingly look south for partners, as other partners in the Horn of Africa, as Ethiopia and Sudan, seems unstable, and Eritrea’s links to Russia becomes problematic, making regional organisations focusing on the horn a less tempting tool for regional integration.

Perhaps ironically, prominent EAC leaders argues that even these countries should be EAC members in the future. The membership might also improve Somalia’s fiscal standing, and the country’s standardisation of budgetary processes through the harmonisation processes that is needed to be implemented before Somalia becomes a full member.

Somalia will gain a coordination mechanisms in order to manage its ongoing war against the Harakat al Shabaab, a war were forces from three of the member states of the EAC, Uganda, Burundi and Kenya, plays a role through their participation in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, the African union force in Somalia, although the force is scheduled to withdraw before the end of 2024.

A last advantage for Somalia is participation in a community that can plan counter-measures against the increased regional challenge stemming from global warming and climate change.

What is at stake for the EAC?

Somalia’s entry process has been a rocky path. At the start, the entry of Somalia was blocked by the EAC because of the civil war in the country. However, over time Somalia stabilised somewhat, and the community also accepted other members with fragile security (South Sudan), and last year Congo, with an ongoing civil war, was accepted.

Yet, there remains skepticism against Somali membership, especially from Tanzania and Burundi, due to fears of increased Somali migration. Fears of Somalia’s instability and even of religious differences with the other countries (Somalia will be the only Muslim majority country in the community) and legal differences (the Kenyan, Tanzanian and Ugandan legal system is based on British common law) still figure in the press.

Interestingly, these fears are mirrored in the Somali debates, where fears of emigration and loss of control of natural resources figures, creates local resistance against the accession; however, these sentiments have not yet been publicly voiced by Somalia’s political opposition.

However, we see the leaders of the EAC strongly argue for Somalia’s membership, especially because on Somalia’s coastline which is Africa’s second largest, as well the maritime resources of the economic exclusive zone and territorial waters of the country. These resources are today much more tempting for the EAC, as piracy declined drastically over the last 10 years, and potential oil, gold and gas resources becomes easier to extract.

These waters, and Somali maritime traditions, also serves as links with the Arab world, and Arab economic hubs as Dubai and Doha, which can be useful for the EAC. Although , having a modest gross national product on paper, Somali financial networks, also stretches through east Africa, and both the Somalian government and the hole of the EAC has a keen interest in promoting stability and taxability in these networks.

Somalia also serves as a stepping stone in the community large scale ambitions of expansion, aiming for some 800 million inhabitants, and to provide a strong voice in the global economy, in this sense it is aligned with the wider goals of the union.

Consequences

The admission into the EAC will enhance the prestige of the sitting Somali president and has been particularly important for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud since he became involved in the process during his first period as president.

It also enables Somalia to have a more fruitful dialogue with Kenya over its maritime border issue through the common institutions EAC, and will ease the operations of many of the Somali business networks in East Africa. For some of the federal member states of Somalia, as Puntland, the accession to EAC would be bad news, as streamlining legislation with regards to natural resource extraction and legal issues would weaken federal state attempts to control over their natural resources.

Hassan Sheik Mohamed might believe that Somaliland hand vs Somalia will be strengthened. However, we have seen in the past that the East African Community, despite having a charter that demands that the member states are democratic, have been relative reluctant to engage in other member states internal politics, the effect on the Somaliland issue will most probably be limited, and less important than Somaliland’s recent battlefield defeats.

 

The author works primarily within the fields of organised crime; religion and politics