“If there be any in this assembly, and any dear friend of Caesar’s, to him I say Brutus’ love to Caesar was no less than his. If then that friend demand why Brutus rose against Caesar, this is my answer: not that I loved Caesar less, but I loved Rome more. Had you rather Caesar were living and die all slaves, than Caesar were dead, to live all free men?” – From Julius Caesar.
This speech was given by Marcus Junius Brutus, the most prominent of the killers of Roman Dictator Gaius Julius Caesar, during Caesar’s funeral.
His rationale for the assassination was simple – Julius Ceasar had become bigger than Rome and no one individual should be allowed to be that powerful.
That for the realm to survive, it was necessary that Julius Caesar must die.
That despite all the love, adoration and valour Caesar had, for Romans to move forward as free men, it was necessary once more to elevate the realm to the top.
Thus, I say to the Orange Democratic Movement – ODM must figuratively die for Raila Odinga to become President. Let me explain.
One of the biggest problems Raila Odinga campaigns have faced over the years has been the mess that comes out of ODM nominations.
Because of the huge interest in the party ticket in his strongholds, party nominations are almost always a matter of political life and death.
ODM nominations in Raila Odinga strongholds are considered by many to be the elections themselves.
That party nomination certificate is as good as the IEBC Certificate of Declaration of Election Results!
And whereas this model has worked in ensuring ODM remains one of the biggest national political parties in Kenya, it has not been able to help him ascend to the highest seat on the land.
And with the exception of 2007, it has not garnered Mr Odinga enough numbers in Parliament to be the majority party.
In fact, in the last two elections under the 2010 Constitution, ODM has not exceeded 30 per cent of the membership of the National Assembly.
Ultimately, the folly of this strategy is that there are always a high number of candidates and their supporters that it disenfranchises and who then end up not turning out to vote.
This can be gleaned from the voter turn-out statistics for the 2017 General Elections.
In the six counties in Nyanza Region, the average voter turnout was 78 per cent while the average for the six Central Kenya counties was 86 per cent.
Kisumu County in the heart of Luo Nyanza had the lowest voter turn-out at 70 per cent!
A simple calculation shows that had the turn-out in Nyanza been similar to that in Central, Nyanza would have had an additional 681,875 votes.
In the top three counties in Raila Odinga's stronghold of Coast, a similar turn-out would have added an additional 322,253 voters with Raila garnering 75 per cent of the votes. It is clear that voter turn-out deficiencies in Raila Odinga strongholds have been a major contributor to the shortfall in his total votes – so significant that it could very easily have changed the electoral outcome.
Politics is local.
A lot of voters engage with the electoral process because they have a candidate in the race, sometimes at the lowest level of member of the County Assembly.
Sometimes an entire clan is invested in that one candidate – as is often the case with many of the local seats.
The emotional hurt from what is considered an unfair nomination exercise is usually so deep that their supporters carry the grudges with them to election day – and almost always blame Raila Odinga for rigging their candidate out.
And whereas he would still end up with up to 97 per cent of the votes cast, the lower turnout often robs him of hundreds of thousands more votes. Raila Odinga must not repeat this mistake.
The Azimio La Umoja Coalition (Azimio) offers Raila Odinga a platform that elevates his campaign beyond the Orange Democratic Movement. And he should keep it that way.
Raila Odinga is like that huge mugumo tree under whose shade every one of his supporters must find shelter.
Azimio is that big tent in which every supporter of Raila Odinga whenever they are must find shelter no matter what party their local interest aligns with.
The era of his handlers deciding small matters like which party an MCA is elected on must come to an end.
After all, whoever his supporters elect would still be loyal to him.
Raila Odinga is now bigger than ODM.
He belongs to over 20 Political Parties (and growing) who joined Azimio and chose him as their Presidential Candidate.
And given that he will be President, he should keep off small matters like how many seats ODM as a party gets in the General Elections – the Presidency will carter for the shortfall!
The focus should be on the State House.
The more Azimio candidates there are on the ballot, the better for him as they each deploy their own Get-Out-The-Vote programs.
It will not only reduce the costs to the Presidential Campaign but also significantly increase voter turn-out.
Those who get out to vote for their beloved clansman or local candidate would inevitably vote for Raila Odinga for President.
This Election, he must respectfully reject those famous words from the late Otieno Kajwang about loyalty and fidelity to the party.
Loyalty must only be to Raila Odinga the Azimio La Umoja Presidential Candidate.
This must be the only yardstick with which a candidate is measured.
I want to see Raila Odinga repeat the message he gave in Wajir two weeks ago: that everyone is welcome to join him as long as it is under the Azimio.
Let the people choose their leaders irrespective of Party affiliation as long as they support the Azimio Candidate for President.
He must stop ODM from fighting with its siblings in Azimio wherever they may be.
A Wiper or Jubilee candidate in Suba South must be treated with the same respect just as an ODM candidate.
Let all of them get equal treatment from the Presidential campaign.
Everyone should be elected on their own merit without using sham party nominations to disenfranchise their opponents.
This election may turn on those few disenfranchised voters who stay at home.
It is therefore a sensical thing that all effort should be geared towards a higher voter turn-out. The Presidency is THE PRIZE!
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