• Short ranis of October-November-December season constitutes an important rainfall season in Central and South-eastern regions of the country.
• The seasonal forecast indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience depressed rainfall.
The October-November-December 2022 short rains is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space.
This is mainly during the onset month of October and the peak month of November according to the Kenya Meteorological department.
The OND 2022 short rains season constitutes an important rainfall season in Kenya particularly in the Central and South-eastern regions of the country.
The seasonal forecast indicated that most parts of the country are likely to experience depressed rainfall with higher probabilities over the eastern sector.
“During the season, it is likely that most areas will have a generally poor distribution of rainfall in both time and space,” said MET.
The forecast also indicated that the start of the rainfall season is likely to be delayed across much of the eastern parts of the country. The western part of the country will continue receiving rainfall from September.
“Despite the expected depressed rains, isolated incidences of storms that could cause flash floods are still likely to occur. For the larger part of the country, the season will likely bring warmer-than-average temperatures, especially over the eastern parts of the country,” the forecast showed.
David Gikungu. Director of Meteorological services said a fifth consecutive failed rainy season would be devastating for the millions of people already suffering from the drought.
The country is already experiencing drought conditions, particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid counties, due to inadequate rainfall over the last four seasons.
The short rains forecast indicated that areas likely to receive below-average (depressed) rainfall include Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Nandi, Kericho, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, parts of Embu, and Nairobi, parts of Machakos, Kajiado, Turkana and Samburu Counties.
Areas likely to receive increased probabilities for below-average (highly depressed) rainfall are Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, Kitui, Makueni, parts of Machakos Taita Taveta, Kajiado, parts of Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi Counties.
“However, a small section of the western sector of the Country Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Trans Nzoia, and West Pokot are like to receive near-average, tending towards below average rainfall,” the OND forecast showed.
The forecast indicated that most parts of the country will experience a late onset and an early cessation. This is especially apparent in the Eastern Sector.
Several parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, and the Lake Victoria Basin will continue to receive light rains in September.
Onset of rains in Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, parts of Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, parts of West Pokot, Nandi, Kericho, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok will start in September.
Onset of rains in Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi and Nairobi will start from the fourth week of October - 1st week of November while the onset will be will end the third and fourth week of December.
“In Kitui, Makueni, Machakos Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale Counties the rains will start from the first to fourth week of November and will end in the third and fourth week of December,” the forecast revealed.