In 2023, Kenyan avocados surpassed Mexican ones in import value among China’s avocado sources, ranking third. Following a strong debut in the Chinese market in August 2022, Kenyan avocados secured a six per cent market share, but exports have plummeted significantly this year.
As South Africa, Tanzania and other African avocado producers aim to explore the Chinese market, why have Kenyan avocado exports to China, Asia's largest avocado market, dropped by 80 per cent?
Data from the General Administration of Customs China shows that the country’s avocado trade volume in 2023 reached 65,600 tonnes, with a growth rate of 310.47 per cent compared to 2015 and an annual growth rate of about 19.31 per cent. Imported avocados remain dominant in the Chinese market.
However, Kenya, exported only 742,934 kilogrammes of avocados to China in the first seven months of 2024, marking an 80 per cent drop compared to the same period last year when imports totalled 3,674,463 kilogrammes.
One reason is Chinese avocado consumption. China indeed has 1.4 billion potential consumers, but it’s essential to note that average consumption of avocados in the Chinese market is still low compared to the European market.
The annual per capita avocado consumption in Asia currently stands at less than 0.05 kilogrammes, significantly lower than the 1.6 kilogrammes consumed in Europe. This disparity explains why avocado giants in Peru, Mexico and Kenya saw more business opportunities in the European market.
Another main reason could be the strong competition from Peru and Chile, which have dominated almost 88 per cent of China’s import avocado market.
Currently, nine countries, including Peru, Chile, Kenya, Mexico, New Zealand, the Philippines, Colombia, the US and Vietnam, are exporting avocados to China. South Africa and Tanzania were recently granted market access to China.
In 2023, Peru exported around 50,000 tonnes of avocados valued at approximately $108 million (Sh13.9 billion), accounting for 76.26 per cent of the import volume in China. Chile followed with exports totalling 8,125.96 tonnes, making up 12.38 per cent of the import volume in China.
The competition in the Chinese market is very fierce. For Kenyan avocado exports, exploring markets like China offers long-term growth possibilities. Additionally, diversifying export destinations could provide a buffer against future market disruptions and stabilise demand in the face of fluctuating production cycles.
Non-resident research fellow at the Institute of African Studies of Zhejiang Normal University, former government relations and business consultant for Chinese enterprises in Africa
