Ruto looks beyond Mt Kenya in his 2027 re-election strategy

Recent moves by President William Ruto have revealed his change of strategy, penetrating rival territories as he builds his 2027 re-election machine.

Notably, the President’s indication he could back opposition leader Raila Odinga for the African Union's topmost job, points to a radical shift in his plan to secure a second term.

In the 2022 general election, a populist campaign anchored in the hustler narrative, support from vote-rich regions including Mt Kenya and significant inroads in rivals’ turfs, helped Ruto win the presidency.

Ruto polled 7,176,141 (50.49 per cent) to secure the 50 per cent plus one required to win in the first round, edging out his main rival Raila of Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition. The PDM boss got 48.85 per cent of the vote.

However, a shift in the country’s political dynamics coupled with pressure over the painful and court-impeded implementation of his Bottom-up Economic Transformation Agenda (Beta) could have forced Ruto to change his strategy.

The President is keen on penetrating enemy territories, including Raila’s heartland of Nyanza, and consolidating Western Kenya as his Plan B should the   restless My Kenya region flip ahead of 2027.

“It is clear there are issues in Mt Kenya that President Ruto cannot wish away. The succession wars and the infighting in UDA over Ruto’s 2027 running mate is just the tip of the iceberg,” political analyst Dismus Mokua said.

Mokua said the fissures in Mt Kenya could have forced him to find a strategy to woo the opposition turf as part of his fallback plan.

“The year 2027 is still very far off and the formations are yet to become pronounced. The political signals, however, point to how they will tilt the presidential contest,” he told the Star.

UDA Secretary General Cleophas Malala denied the President’s decision to work with leaders from other regions is part of his 2027 re-election strategy, saying he is determined to serve all regions as required by the Constitution.

“At the moment, the President’s immediate focus is to deliver on his agenda for Kenyans, irrespective of where they are across all regions of this Republic,’’ Malala said.

The UDA lynchpin, however, admitted politics is dynamic and as the country hurtles to the 2027 elections a lot is bound to change or shift depending on very many variables.

“The President is keen to unite the country, restore tranquillity so his administration can implement its programmes and spur economic growth,’’ he said.

Following Raila’s formal declaration that he will be running for the AU Commission chairperson’s job, there has been a wave of excitement in Kenya Kwanza and mixed feelings from his strongholds.

Some believe the move is part of Ruto’s strategy to win over Raila’s loyal political turfs to bolster his 2027 re-election chances.

The President is keen on penetrating enemy territories, including Raila’s heartland of Nyanza, and consolidating Western Kenya

Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi, who served as retired President Uhuru Kenyatta’s technical adviser, has warned that Ruto is determined to win over Raila’s Nyanza heartland.

According to Ngunyi, the Mt Kenya community has been playing hardball with Ruto, despite the President handing the region the lion’s share of his government.

He called Ruto’s move "clever".

"Dear Kikuyus, continue playing 'hard to get' with Ruto after he gave you 10 out of 22 Cabinet slots. But watch how one man, Ruto, will make Raila President of Africa. Then you will realise that you probably do not matter. Ruto's next stop is the Luo Nation.”

Nyanza is Raila’s political bedrock and most loyal stronghold.

His AU bid, if successful, would therefore rejig the region’s politics and, in effect, remove Raila from the board.

Raila, a five-time presidential candidate and Ruto’s main opponent in the 2022 general election, is seen as President Ruto's foremost challenger in the 2027 polls.

Some analysts have suggested that should Raila succeed in his quest for the AU Commission chairperson job with Ruto’s support, he could forego his presidential ambitions.

There is a feeling in Ruto’s camp that he needs to expand his political foothold beyond the regions that overwhelmingly supported his 2022 presidential bid.

This is informed by changing political dynamics, especially in the Mt Kenya region that signals a possible rebellion against Kenya Kwanza due to unmet expectations and succession wars.

“The President of the Republic of Kenya is working with all Kenyans, including Nyanza region, because he must do so under the Constitution. That is why he has insisted all regions must get development without any discrimination,” said National Assembly Majority Whip Silvanus Osoro.

The South Mugirango MP revealed the President has a plan to reduce political antagonism across the country to create an environment conductive to development projects.

“The Kenya Kwanza administration is focused on development and cohesion and as we progress, most likely Kenya will be more united in 2027 than ever,’’ he said

There are fears retired President Uhuru Kenyatta’s larger-than-life political shadow continues to loom large in the populous Mt Kenya region, threatening Kenya Kwanza’s fortunes. He fell out bitterly with Ruto and championed Raila.

His high status, coupled with vicious succession wars in which the region’s leaders compete to take over Uhuru’s kingship role have forced Ruto to change tack.

Rivalry between politicians allied to Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua exposed a growing revolt, threatening to reverse Kenya's Kwanza gains.

Although the war has since fizzled out following Ruto’s intervention, observers said the developments were a political eye-opener, forcing strategists to accelerate 2027 options.

Gachagua has since reconciled with Nyoro while MPs who were pushing for the DP's removal in 2027 have gone silent.

Political observers say the President is cleverly playing his 2027 cards to avoid over-reliance on Mt Kenya that ‘gave him the presidency’ and overcome the political burden that comes with incumbency.

“President Ruto is a smart politician. He knows one thing for sure is that you never get the same votes for president that you got in the first term,” political analyst Mark Bichachi said.

He said the President was out to wean himself from dependency on Central.

“He knows he cannot depend on Mt Kenya alone to make him President twice. He has to increase his networks outside that region,” he said.

“The smart way is to expand the networks to add to the votes that he got from Western, Nyanza and these other regions. It’s 2027 mathematics in place,” the analyst said.

Recently, the President has been on a massive charm offensive in regions that largely voted for the Opposition in the last polls in a clear scheme to broaden his political networks.

For the first time, Ruto is actively involving his appointees in executing his agenda at the grassroots, parading them in all his meetings to confirm what his allies say is mainstreaming of Nyanza into government.

Ruto’s allies believe he could finally break the jinx of former presidents who struggled but failed to win over Nyanza.

Weeks ago, the President camped in Western, the home ground of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula, and rallied the region behind his administration.

Ruto has been to the Coast for four days where he toured Mombasa, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River and Taita Taveta as he moved to widen his support bases.

He has also been to his Rift Valley backyard before camping in Mt Kenya.