Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu posted some “breaking news” on his social media handles a few months ago. He alleged a plot by Deputy President William Ruto to bypass the Mt Kenya region in the appointment of a running mate.
Ngunjiri claimed the DP planned to present himself as the direct representative of the Kikuyu nation, hence, representing their interests with or without a running mate.
Subsequent intense campaigns by the DP’s entourage in Central Kenya, coupled with a popularity wave in recent months, seem to confirm the MP’s theory.
Quite unlike ODM chief Raila Odinga, who in the past three elections has shared the vote almost 50-50 with the eventual winner, the DP is in a tight race to not only secure a huge portion of the Mt Kenya vote but also appoint a running mate who helps him crack the code in a third region outside Mt Kenya and Rift Valley.
Commentators agree that Ruto’s best shot at the presidency relies on a huge score in the Mt Kenya region. Therefore, the dilemma for him is whether to cement this with a running mate from the mountain or believe he has done enough to secure their vote and pick someone from another region.
The problem is that President Uhuru Kenyatta is set for what appears to be a blitzkrieg in Central Kenya on behalf of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Given his incumbency and power of state, he will certainly negate some gains made by Ruto there.
As if it couldn’t get more complicated, Ruto’s allies from Western Kenya, ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang'ula, are holding onto hopes that Mudavadi may be picked as running mate, if they are to get some semblance of respectable votes within the Luhya community.
Most ANC MPs have since defected to ODM, confirming without doubt that the two could be in trouble if they don’t have something to show their people as a sign of progress since leaving the Nasa and Oka coalitions, where they perennially threatened to run for President.
For Ruto, it’s either pick Mudavadi and risk a large portion of the Mt Kenya support, especially if Raila settles for a running mate from the region. Or, go all the way with a mountain DP then throw away not only any potential inroads into not only Luhyaland but old Raila bases that he is desperate to crack.
Raila’s own path seems relatively easy. For a start, he has the support of the President, and it is taken for granted that Uhuru and his Jubilee Party will have a final say on who becomes Raila’s running mate.
The President has access to raw intelligence, which means that he will have been doing different scenario mappings by the time the Azimio brigade settles on someone.
The early favourite was former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, but there has been debate on his ability to mobilise support for the Azimio candidate both in his Murang'a backyard and the larger region.
In recent weeks, besides Agriculture CS Peter Munya, the name of Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua has emerged as one of the frontrunners to be picked.
In my view, however, Karua would face the same challenge as Kenneth, revolving around just how much more support she is able to garner for the Azimio candidate, beyond what the President can get through his own campaigns. I’ll come to CS Munya a little later.
If you ask me, by far the best running mate for Raila would be Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu. She is a seasoned campaigner, and when she broke the glass ceiling to be the first woman to run for President in 1997, she didn’t just make the numbers among the candidates.
She also ran a credible and passionate countrywide campaign where she was the alternative candidate for many voters stuck in our usual tribal-based political parties.
I am convinced indeed that if you had divorced us from our tribes and removed Kanu’s choking stranglehold via state apparatus in 1997, Ngilu would have been the preferred candidate of many.
Besides, she has acquitted herself quite admirably in her five years as Kitui governor, by among others, giving a shot in the arm for devolution’s value-addition principle with the Kicotec factory.
The governor enjoys wide support, especially among women of Kenya, across the country and across the tribes, and would excite the grassroots for the Raila campaign.
But perhaps by far the biggest reason to settle on Ngilu would be that she and Raila enjoy amazing chemistry, mutual respect and trust in each other.
The Uhuru-Ruto fallout has taught us a lesson where partnerships based on political expediency will never overcome such basic tenets as the need for shared dignity and trust.
Raila and Ngilu go back a long way, not just from the IPPG negotiations of 1997, but also and especially during the creation of the triumphant Narc in 2002. Ngilu was the glue holding the NAK side of the talks, while Raila was her opposite number in the LDP-Rainbow rebels from Kanu.
Together, the pair would be a cracker of a presidential team. But Ngilu is neither from Jubilee nor the mountain, the two demographics that will presumably settle the matter of the Azimio DP. And Kalonzo would most likely throw a massive tantrum if Ngilu is the running mate.
This is where Munya comes in. But first, there is the small matter the President likes to ask of the mountain masses; to go out and tell the people the truth about Raila so that the old stereotypes can end.
Not many politicians have the courage to openly sell Raila in those impromptu small gatherings in the villages, opting instead to shout themselves hoarse in the larger Azimio meetings.
Munya is different. A courageous and experienced political brawler, Munya has taken the bull by the horns in selling Raila among his Meru people, even when encountering hostile reception. In answering the question of how much more value would a running mate add to the ticket, I believe Munya ticks all the boxes.
There are over a million votes up for grabs in the twin counties of Meru and Tharaka Nithi, for which the appointment of Munya would, in my view, cause an Azimio wave.
The Ameru community has never had one of its own ascend to the seat of second in command, and Munya would provide them with the dream ticket.
This then means the Azimio team would let the President handle his Kikuyu side of things, leaving the Raila-Munya ticket to sweep the other side of the mountain. This combination would be in State House faster than you can say 'Inawezekana! But we will wait and see what the candidates themselves think.
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