Azimio is a project of the 'deep state' and some people. Uhuru is the patron. He has installed project Raila and is now looking for a deputy president for Raila
President Uhuru Kenyatta is fired up to campaign for his erstwhile political nemesis ODM leader Raila Odinga, staging a showdown with his ally-turned-rival Deputy President William Ruto.
The President, both in public and private, has asked his supporters to vote for Raila, promising to deliver his Mt Kenya backyard to the Azimio La Umoja vote basket.
Uhuru has dared those who think he is a lame duck and therefore cannot influence the vote outcome to bring it on.
“I’ll vote for whoever my conscience believes in, as I only have one vote. But if there are one or two people who will listen to me, I won’t hesitate to explain my choice of successor,” Uhuru said.
In response, Ruto dismissed the President’s backing of Raila as one that will not scuttle his bid to defeat the big shots of the country's political life. He said Raila has become a 'state project', no longer his own man but a puppet who will continue the problems wrought by the state.
The question, then, is what does the President’s support mean for Raila and Ruto who are frontrunners in the succession race?
One of President Kenyatta's benefits to Raila is the backing of the powerful Mt Kenya Foundation, which twice influenced his own election.
The support is also said to come with cash and support of the state machinery in the election process.
The political arena is abuzz with talk that the endorsement, which has been bitterly contested by hopefuls in the race, could cut both ways.
A poisoned chalice or a boost, a political grail? That's the main ask, with a focus on how it plays out in Mt Kenya – a test for Uhuru’s sway in the vote-rich region.
USIU don Prof Macharia Munene told the Star it is hard to say to what extent the endorsement would impact Raila's chances, because there are arguments on both sides.
He said the Ruto team, using the example of 2002, claiming that Raila is being shoved down Kenyans' throat can go a long way in creating political mileage for UDA.
“It can be played both ways, in as much as the President is going around saying this is my man and is the one who would continue with what I want. That message may not come out very well in some quarters,” he explained, referring to those who don't want what the President wants.
IEBC data shows Central has 3.1 million voters after the just-concluded voter listing, coming after Eastern which has 3.3 million.
Rift Valley, where Ruto enjoys a huge following, has 5.3 million voters, while Raila’s Nyanza backyard has crossed the three million mark.
It is a difficult position to be in because it depends on who does the public believe. So it is about which of the two sides would appear to have more credibility than the other
Prof Munene said the impact differs with the audience in that if the audience is of people who support Uhuru, then the message will be okay.
“In other places where there may be questions, it may not resonate well,” the International Relations don said.
Prof Munene said the Raila side’s narrative – that he has a record of doing things his way as opposed to through someone’s help – cannot be ignored either.
“It is a difficult position to be in because it depends on who does the public believe. So it is about which of the two sides would appear to have more credibility than the other,” he said.
Prof Munene said anything can happen within the few months to the election but said the politics will be very intense.
“The problem is on Raila, who has to extricate himself from the image of the Jubilee administration,” the don said.
Ruto's allies, among them Amani leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang'ula, have dismissed the President's support for Raila, saying 'Kenyans have never elected a project.'
“Azimio is a project of the 'deep state' and some people. Uhuru is the patron. He has installed project Raila and is now looking for a deputy president for Raila,” Mudavadi recently said.
They claimed the President is seeking to "succeed himself", rallying their supporters to defeat what would appear to be an extension of President Kenyatta and his 'failed' policies.
They argue that Uhuru has not learnt from history after the Mwai Kibaki defeat of 2002 when he was backed by outgoing President Daniel Moi (deceased).
Political pundits hold that Uhuru was at that time was a young man, a political novice, and cannot be compared to an experienced Raila in the face-off with Ruto.
They also pointed out that the entire opposition machinery was behind President Mwai Kibaki’s bid. Uhuru garnered 30 per cent of the vote while Kibaki got 62 per cent.
Dr Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, dismissed the assertions Raila is Uhuru’s project.
“Someone with an international appeal cannot be a project of Uhuru. He is in a much more senior league than what the Rutos and Mudavadis claim," he said.
“He [Raila] doesn’t play in the same league. All these were his political pupils. Uhuru was his deputy. How can he be a project of Uhuru? That is not sensible.”
He also defended the ODM leader, saying if he was a project, he was a "people's project", not a bad thing.
Saying the AU Infrastructure envoy has proven to be his own man on many occasions, they dismissed the UDA side as “backed by people of controversial standing”.
“How can Raila – and everyone knows the extent to which Raila has fought for this country – be anybody’s project?” Homa Bay Woman MP Gladys Wanga asked.
The other debate is whether presidential support comes with glad tidings to whichever side it goes, or is a burdensome baggage of inherited ills.
Mandera East MP Omar Mohamed said, “If he [Uhuru] is serious about supporting Raila, he will make a lot of impact.”
“The goodwill of a sitting president comes with a lot of resources in tow. He will tilt the scales for whichever side he backs,” the EFP lawmaker said.
Gatanga MP Nduati Ngugi, for his part said, “Uhuru is a prince. Our people will listen to his word.
“A lot has changed in the region since he started giving his indications. We can only expect that to get better in favour of Raila Odinga and the Azimio fraternity. Our people, especially elders, don’t like it when others insult the king or a prince.”
Dr Nyambuga agrees. “If Uhuru gets into the political trenches, especially in Central province, he brings a double box.”
He said this follows the call by several Mt Kenya leaders on Uhuru to give them direction 'as a leader and eminent member of the region'.
“The last one was Mwai Kibaki’s son Jimmy,” Dr Nyambuga said. “As a leader, there are things he has seen and known that others haven't.
“I expect that if everything remains constant and Uhuru were to give direction, that direction will have sway in Mt Kenya.”
Dr Nyambuga said that borrowing from the level of propaganda Uhuru team once leveled against Raila, “people will listen when he goes and hits total vernacular.” And said the things he told Mt Kenya about Raila were untrue.
At the centre of that fight is who takes credit for Jubilee's achievements, and how to apportion blame where the government has failed to deliver.
Ruto has also vehemently attacked machinations to isolate him from the Jubilee success stories, with Raila and Uhuru allies saying a lot of work was done after 2018.
